This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8363 (-53 or -0.63%)
AU200 is trending lower with a moderate decline from 8416 to 8363, signalling slight weakness in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Mon 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8384. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8405, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8426 and potentially 8467.
If we cannot close above 8342, we could see a move back to test 8321 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8300, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8259.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 21287 (-85 or -0.4%)
DE30 is trending lower with a moderate decline, signalling weakness. A break below key levels could accelerate downside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Mon 21:00 – EUR CPI (Jan)
Wed 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 21340. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 21443, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 21504 and potentially 21553.
If we cannot close above 21234, we could see a move back to test 21130 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 21069, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 21001.
US
S&P 500 – 5921 (-95 or -1.58%)
The US500 is trending lower with a notable decline, signalling weakness as it moves 95 points down from last week’s level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 02:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5935. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5950, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5964 and potentially 5995.
If we cannot close above 5906, we could see a move back to test 5891 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5877, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5846.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6146 (-125 or -1.99%)
AUDUSD is trending lower with a notable decline, signalling weakness. The move is significant, indicating strong bearish momentum in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Mon 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Dec)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 02:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6161. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6176, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6192 and potentially 0.6223.
If we cannot close above 0.6131, we could see a move back to test 0.6116 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6100, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6069.
EUR/USD – 1.0246 (-206 or -1.97%)
EURUSD is trending lower with a notable drop, signalling weakness. The decline suggests sustained bearish pressure with potential for further downside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Mon 21:00 – EUR CPI (Jan)
Wed 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Dec)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 02:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0275. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0307, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0339 and potentially 1.0367.
If we cannot close above 1.0220, we could see a move back to test 1.0198 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0166, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0118.
GBP/USD – 1.2296 (-165 or -1.32%)
The GBPUSD is showing a strong downward trend, with a significant move of 0.0165, indicating weakness in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 02:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2327. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2359, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2391 and potentially 1.2441.
If we cannot close above 1.2271, we could see a move back to test 1.2240 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2214, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2174.
USD/JPY – 155.39 (+5 or +0.03%)
The USDJPY is showing a slight bullish trend this week, with a small but steady move up of 0.05.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:50 – JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
Mon 11:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 11:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jan)
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 02:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.74. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.18, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 156.62 and potentially 157.42.
If we cannot close above 155.04, we could see a move back to test 154.60 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.16, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 153.56.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2795 (+51 or +1.86%)
Gold is trending strongly higher with a significant move up from 2744 to 2795, indicating robust bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2804. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2823, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2838 and potentially 2857.
If we cannot close above 2804, we could see a move back to test 2785 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2770, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2751.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 97355 (-4233 or -4.17%)
Bitcoin has dropped significantly this week, showing a strong bearish trend with a substantial move down of over 4000 points.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 98,888. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 99,420, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 99,953 and potentially 101,150.
If we cannot close above 98,821, we could see a move back to test 98,289 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 97,756, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 96,559.
