This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7200 (-677 or -8.59%)
AU200 plunges over 8% — strong bearish momentum kicking in, major drop signaling risk-off sentiment and potential trend shift!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Apr)
Tue 12:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Mar)
Thu 21:00 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7220. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7240, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7260 and potentially 7290.
If we cannot close above 7180, we could see a move back to test 7160 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7140, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7090.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19594 (-2826 or -12.6%)
DAX crashes over 12% — powerful bearish breakdown, momentum accelerating with heavy selling pressure and clear risk-off sentiment!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
Tue 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Feb)
Fri 20:45 – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 19643. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 19692, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19741 and potentially 19838.
If we cannot close above 19544, we could see a move back to test 19494 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 19445, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 19348.
US
S&P 500 – 4866 (-678 or -12.23%)
US500 drops over 12% — strong bearish reversal underway, sharp correction signals aggressive risk-off sentiment and market repositioning!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/05)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4878. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4890, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4902 and potentially 4926.
If we cannot close above 4853, we could see a move back to test 4840 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4828, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4803.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.5992 (-286 or -4.56%)
AUDUSD dives over 4.5% — decisive bearish momentum, steep drop highlights renewed USD strength and risk-off sentiment in markets!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Apr)
Tue 12:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Mar)
Thu 21:00 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech
Thu 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/05)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6006. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6022, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6037 and potentially 0.6067.
If we cannot close above 0.5977, we could see a move back to test 0.5962 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.5947, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.5917.
EUR/USD – 1.0991 (+176 or +1.63%)
EURUSD climbs nearly 2% — strong bullish push, breaking higher with momentum as euro strength builds and sentiment improves across risk assets!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
Tue 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Feb)
Fri 20:45 – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech
Thu 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/05)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1028. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1064, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1101 and potentially 1.1129.
If we cannot close above 1.0953, we could see a move back to test 1.0916 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0879, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0822.
GBP/USD – 1.2925 (-8 or -0.06%)
GBPUSD flat this week — minimal movement, consolidating near highs as traders await fresh catalysts for the next directional move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 17:00 – GBP GDP MoM (Feb)
Fri 17:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
Fri 17:00 – GBP Industrial Production MoM (Feb)
Thu 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/05)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2957. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2989, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3022 and potentially 1.3087.
If we cannot close above 1.2892, we could see a move back to test 1.2860 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2827, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2762.
USD/JPY – 145.10 (-427 or -2.86%)
USDJPY sinks over 4 points — sharp yen strength driving a strong bearish reversal, signaling potential policy impact or risk aversion!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:50 – JPY Current Account (Feb)
Wed 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Wed 17:15 – JPY BOJ Gov Ueda Speech
Thu 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/05)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 145.46. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.82, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.19 and potentially 146.91.
If we cannot close above 144.73, we could see a move back to test 144.37 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 144.00, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 143.28.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2994 (-95 or -3.08%)
Gold drops nearly 100 points — firm bearish correction, momentum easing after recent highs as investors shift focus to risk assets.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3001. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3009, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3016 and potentially 3029.
If we cannot close above 2986, we could see a move back to test 2978 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2971, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2956.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 78050 (-4007 or -4.88%)
Bitcoin slips over 4,000 points — moderate bearish pullback, cooling off after recent highs as traders lock in profits.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 78250. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 78451, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 78652 and potentially 79052.
If we cannot close above 77849, we could see a move back to test 77648 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 77447, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 77047.
