This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8619 (+82 or +0.96%)
AU200 trending modestly higher with a solid weekly gain; positive momentum but not yet a strong breakout move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue 15:30 – AUD RBA Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8640. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8662, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8683 and potentially 8726.
If we cannot close above 8597, we could see a move back to test 8576 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8554, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8511.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23843 (-273 or -1.13%)
DAX30 trending lower with a notable drop; downside momentum picking up, signaling caution for further weakness ahead.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
Tue 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23902. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23962, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24021 and potentially 24119.
If we cannot close above 23784, we could see a move back to test 23724 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23665, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23567.
US
S&P 500 – 6255 (+69 or +1.12%)
US500 trending higher with a solid gain; upside momentum looks healthy, watch for continuation if resistance levels break.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6271. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6287, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6303 and potentially 6333.
If we cannot close above 6239, we could see a move back to test 6223 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6207, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6177.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6549 (+98 or +1.52%)
AUDUSD drifting slightly higher; move is modest with weak momentum, lacking conviction for a strong breakout so far.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tue 15:30 – AUD RBA Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6565. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6582, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6598 and potentially 0.6631.
If we cannot close above 0.6533, we could see a move back to test 0.6516 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6500, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6467.
EUR/USD – 1.1776 (+49 or +0.42%)
EURUSD trending higher with steady gains; momentum looks healthy, showing signs of building strength for potential further upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
Mon 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (May)
Tue 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1805. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1835, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1864 and potentially 1.1924.
If we cannot close above 1.1747, we could see a move back to test 1.1717 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1688, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1628.
GBP/USD – 1.3647 (-73 or -0.53%)
GBPUSD trending lower with a clear downside move; selling pressure increasing, watch for possible acceleration if key supports break.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 16:00 – GBP GDP MoM (May)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (May)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3681. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3715, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3749 and potentially 1.3816.
If we cannot close above 1.3613, we could see a move back to test 1.3579 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3545, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3478.
USD/JPY – 144.48 (-7 or -0.05%)
USDJPY flat to slightly weaker; market stuck in tight range with no clear momentum, waiting for decisive breakout direction.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:50 – JPY Current Account (May)
Mon 09:30 – JPY Average Cash Earnings YoY (May)
Mon 09:30 – JPY Overtime Pay YoY (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.84. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.20, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.56 and potentially 146.28.
If we cannot close above 144.12, we could see a move back to test 143.76 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.40, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.68.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3327 (+59 or +1.81%)
Gold trending strongly higher with impressive momentum; bulls in control, signaling potential for further significant upside if levels break.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3335. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3344, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3352 and potentially 3368.
If we cannot close above 3319, we could see a move back to test 3310 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3302, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3286.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 109027 (+752 or +0.69%)
Bitcoin trending slightly higher; upside momentum modest so far, but bulls showing resilience with potential for stronger move ahead.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 109299. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 109572, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 109844 and potentially 110399.
If we cannot close above 108755, we could see a move back to test 108482 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 108210, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107655.
