This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8555 (-64 or -0.74%)
AU200 slips 64 points this week, a mild downtrend, but no major shift in momentum just yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8576. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8598, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8620 and potentially 8662.
If we cannot close above 8534, we could see a move back to test 8512 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8490, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8450.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24077 (+234 or +0.98%)
DAX gained slightly this week, showing mild bullishness. Watch for confirmation above resistance to validate continued upside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Thu 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jun)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24137. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24297, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24458 and potentially 24678.
If we cannot close above 24017, we could see a move back to test 23857 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23696, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23376.
US
S&P 500 – 6231 (-24 or -0.38%)
US500 slips -0.38% this week, showing minor weakness. Bears may test support if momentum fails to recover soon.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6246. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6262, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6278 and potentially 6310.
If we cannot close above 6215, we could see a move back to test 6199 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6184, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6152.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6572 (+23 or +0.35%)
AUD/USD edges higher this week, showing mild bullish sentiment. Gains are modest, but key resistance levels remain in focus.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate MoM
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6588. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6605, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6622 and potentially 0.6654.
If we cannot close above 0.6556, we could see a move back to test 0.6539 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6522, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6490.
EUR/USD – 1.1673 (-103 or -0.87%)
EUR/USD drops -0.87% this week, showing clear bearish momentum. Euro weakness could extend if support levels fail to hold.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Thu 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jun)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate MoM
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1702. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1732, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1761 and potentially 1.1818.
If we cannot close above 1.1644, we could see a move back to test 1.1615 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1586, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1529.
GBP/USD – 1.3487 (-160 or -1.17%)
GBP/USD declines -1.17% this week in a sharp move lower. Bearish momentum accelerating with little sign of reversal yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY
Thu 16:00 – GBP Employment Change
Thu 16:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate YoY
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate MoM
Thu 22:30 – USD Retail Sales Control Group MoM
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3521. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3554, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3588 and potentially 1.3656.
If we cannot close above 1.3453, we could see a move back to test 1.3420 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3387, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3319.
USD/JPY – 147.29 (+281 or +1.94%)
USD/JPY surges +1.95% this week in a powerful bullish breakout. Yen weakness accelerates as momentum builds toward new highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:50 – JPY Current Account (May)
Mon 09:30 – JPY Average Cash Earnings YoY (May)
Mon 09:30 – JPY Overtime Pay YoY (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/05)
Thu 22:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/28)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.66. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.03, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.40 and potentially 149.14.
If we cannot close above 146.92, we could see a move back to test 146.55 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.18, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.44.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3367 (+40 or +1.2%)
Gold climbs +1.20% this week, showing solid bullish momentum. Buyers pushing toward resistance as precious metals regain strength.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3375. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3384, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3393 and potentially 3409.
If we cannot close above 3359, we could see a move back to test 3350 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3341, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3325.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 118605 (+9578 or +8.78%)
Bitcoin rallies +8.8% this week in a powerful surge. Momentum is strong as bulls aim for new highs.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 118901. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 119198, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 119493 and potentially 120083.
If we cannot close above 118309, we could see a move back to test 118012 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 117717, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 117127.
