Market Brief


EURUSD slips as USD strengthens on stronger data

Will the euro fall further as the dollar gains strength, and could this move spark bigger swings across currencies and markets?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8808 (-44 or -0.5%)

The ASX slipped -0.5% this week, showing mild bearish momentum after last week’s level.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Aug)

Fri 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8874. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8896, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8918 and potentially 8962.

If we cannot close above 8830, we could see a move back to test 8808 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8786, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8742.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23774 (+94 or +0.4%)

The DAX edged +0.4% higher, showing steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Wed 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Wed 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23739. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23798, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23856 and potentially 23976.

If we cannot close above 23621, we could see a move back to test 23562 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23504, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23384.

US

S&P 500 – 6651 (+162 or +2.5%)

The SPX surged +2.5%, posting strong bullish momentum and clear upside strength this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6505. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6521, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6537 and potentially 6569.

If we cannot close above 6473, we could see a move back to test 6457 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6441, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6409.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6550 (+2 or +0.03%)

AUDUSD was flat with a tiny +0.03% move, consolidating sideways without clear momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (Aug)

Fri 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)

Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6566. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6583, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6600 and potentially 0.6631.

If we cannot close above 0.6566, we could see a move back to test 0.6550 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6533, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6499.

EUR/USD – 1.1706 (-2 or -0.02%)

EURUSD dipped slightly -0.02%, showing neutral-to-bearish momentum with no strong conviction.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Wed 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Wed 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)

Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1735. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1764, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1793 and potentially 1.1853.

If we cannot close above 1.1735, we could see a move back to test 1.1706 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1677, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1619.

GBP/USD – 1.3410 (-78 or -0.58%)

GBPUSD fell -0.58%, showing downside pressure and renewed bearish momentum this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Thu 18:30 – GBP DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (Sep)

Fri 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)

Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3444. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3477, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3510 and potentially 1.3576.

If we cannot close above 1.3444, we could see a move back to test 1.3410 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3376, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3310.

USD/JPY – 149.35 (+106 or +0.71%)

USUSDJPY gained +0.71%, showing solid bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)

Thu 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Tue 09:50 – JPY Industrial Production MoM (Aug)

Wed 22:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)

Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.72. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.09, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.46 and potentially 151.20.

If we cannot close above 149.72, we could see a move back to test 149.35 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.98, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 148.24.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 3769 (+84 or +2.28%)

Gold climbed +2.28%, breaking higher with strong bullish momentum this week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3778. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3788, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3797 and potentially 3816.

If we cannot close above 3778, we could see a move back to test 3769 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3760, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3741.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 111987 (+800 or +0.72%)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 112267. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 112547, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 112827 and potentially 113387.

If we cannot close above 112267, we could see a move back to test 111987 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 111707, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 111147.

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