Market Brief


Gold prices slip as safe-haven demand eases on hopes of a Trump-China trade breakthrough

The Trump administration and Beijing have agreed on a broad trade framework preventing 100% tariffs and delaying China’s rare-earth export curbs, a move seen as easing global trade tensions. Has this easing in trade tensions diminished gold’s safe-haven appeal, and could it mark the start of a broader shift toward risk assets?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  9073 (+84 or +0.93%)

The ASX advanced this week, up +0.93%, signalling steady bullish momentum versus last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 19:15 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech

Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q3)

Mon (Nov 03) 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9096. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9118, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9141 and potentially 9186.

If we cannot close above 9050, we could see a move back to test 9028 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9005, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8960.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24209 (+242 or +1.01%)

The DAX pushed higher, gaining +1.01% week-on-week, keeping the uptrend intact.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Thu 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Oct)

Fri 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24270. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24330, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24391 and potentially 24512.

If we cannot close above 24148, we could see a move back to test 24088 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24027, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23906.

US

S&P 500 – 6838 (+168 or +2.52%)

SPX rallied strongly, +2.52% on the week, showing firm bullish momentum and follow-through.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6855. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6872, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6889 and potentially 6923.

If we cannot close above 6821, we could see a move back to test 6804 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6787, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6753.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6533 (+41 or +0.63%)

AUDUSD edged higher, +0.63% this week, hinting at a modest bullish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 19:15 – AUD RBA Bullock Speech

Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q3)

Mon (Nov 03) 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6549. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6566, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6582 and potentially 6615.

If we cannot close above 6517, we could see a move back to test 6500 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6484, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6451.

EUR/USD – 1.1630 (-27 or -0.23%)

EURUSD slipped, down -0.23% this week, indicating mild bearish pressure versus last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:00 – EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Thu 19:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Oct)

Fri 00:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 11659. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 11688, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 11717 and potentially 11775.

If we cannot close above 11601, we could see a move back to test 11572 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 11543, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 11485.

GBP/USD – 1.3320 (-105 or -0.78%)

GBPUSD declined -0.78% on the week, maintaining a bearish tilt and softer momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 20:30 – GBP Mortgage Approvals (Sep)

Fri 18:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Oct)

Mon (Nov 03) 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 13353. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 13387, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 13420 and potentially 13486.

If we cannot close above 13287, we could see a move back to test 13253 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 13220, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13154.

USD/JPY – 153.06 (+269 or +1.79%)

USDJPY extended higher, +1.79% this week, reflecting sustained yen weakness and bullish USD momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 14:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Fri 10:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Fri 10:50 – JPY Industrial Production MoM (Sep)

Thu 05:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

Fri 23:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 15344. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 15383, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 15421 and potentially 15497.

If we cannot close above 15268, we could see a move back to test 15229 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15191, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15115.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4069 (-181 or -4.26%)

Gold fell -4.26% this week, signalling bearish momentum and risk of further weakness.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4079. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4089, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4100 and potentially 4120.

If we cannot close above 4059, we could see a move back to test 4049 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4038, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4018.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 114427 (+5915 or +5.45%)

Bitcoin climbed +5.45% week-on-week, reinforcing bullish momentum and upward trend continuation.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 114713. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 114999, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 115285 and potentially 115857.

If we cannot close above 114141, we could see a move back to test 113855 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 113569, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 112997.

DISCLAIMER

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