Market Brief


With the dollar extending its rally, could we now be on the cusp of a broader FX regime shift that leaves major pairs repositioning?

As USD/JPY pushes higher and EUR/USD nears key resistance, are we heading into a genuine breakout phase for the currency markets?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8501 (-102 or -1.19%)

The ASX slipped lower this week, down -1.19%, showing bearish momentum and a continuation of last week’s weakness.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD CPI (Oct)

Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Oct)

Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8522. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8543, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8564 and potentially 8607.

If we cannot close above 8479, we could see a move back to test 8458 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8437, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8394.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23275 (-533 or -2.24%)

The DAX fell sharply this week by -2.24%, indicating strong downward pressure and continued bearish trend.The DAX ticked higher this week with a modest +0.21% gain, showing light but steady upward momentum from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 28, 18:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)

Fri 28, 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)

Mon 24, 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23333. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23392, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23450 and potentially 23564.

If we cannot close above 23217, we could see a move back to test 23159 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23101, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23017.

US

S&P 500 – 6631 (-96 or -1.43%)

SPX dropped -1.43% this week, confirming a bearish trajectory with consistent selling pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)

Thu 27, 00:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6648. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6664, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6680 and potentially 6705.

If we cannot close above 6614, we could see a move back to test 6598 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6582, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6557.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.6451 (-83 or -1.27%)
AUDUSD declined -1.27% this week, trending lower with a clear bearish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD CPI (Oct)

Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Oct)

Wed 26, 11:30 – AUD RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Oct)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)

Thu 27, 00:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6467. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6484, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6500 and potentially 0.6521.

If we cannot close above 0.6434, we could see a move back to test 0.6417 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6401, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6382.

EUR/USD – 1.1506 (-117 or -1.01%)

EURUSD edged down -1.01%, showing mild bearish momentum over the week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 28, 18:45 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)

Fri 28, 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)

Mon 24, 20:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Nov)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)

Thu 27, 00:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1534. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1563, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1592 and potentially 1.1660.

If we cannot close above 1.1478, we could see a move back to test 1.1449 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1420, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1352.

GBP/USD – 1.13089 (-80 or -0.61%)

GBPUSD fell -0.61%, trending slightly lower with modest bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 28, 18:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Nov)

Tue 25, 22:00 – GBP CBI Distributive Trades (Nov)

Thu 27, 23:30 – GBP Autumn Budget 2025

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)

Thu 27, 00:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3121. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3154, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3187 and potentially 1.3245.

If we cannot close above 1.3057, we could see a move back to test 1.3024 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2991, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2933.


USD/JPY – 156.73 (+224 or +1.45%)

USDJPY gained +1.45% this week, showing bullish momentum and upward trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Wed 26, 00:30 – USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep)

Thu 27, 00:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 150.07. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.44, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.81 and potentially 151.66.

If we cannot close above 147.36, we could see a move back to test 146.99 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.62, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.77.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4052 (-46 or -1.12%)

Gold fell -1.12% this week, showing weakness and bearish continuation.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4062. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4073, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4083 and potentially 4103.

If we cannot close above 4041, we could see a move back to test 4030 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4020, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4000.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 86652 (-6749 or -7.23%)

BTC tumbled -7.23% this week, reflecting strong bearish momentum and selling pressure.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 86881. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 87109, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 87338 and potentially 87791.

If we cannot close above 86423, we could see a move back to test 86195 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 85966, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 85413.

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