Market Brief


With Bitcoin breaking higher and crypto sentiment improving, could this mark the start of a broader risk-on trend across digital assets?

As BTC leads the charge and altcoins show renewed strength, are we entering a genuine rotation into higher-beta crypto and risk assets?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8596 (+95 or +1.12%)

The ASX moved higher this week with a steady +1.12% gain, showing continued strength and mild bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Dec 03, 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
Dec 01, 11:30 – AUD Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q3)
Dec 02, 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8617. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8638, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8659 and potentially 8712.

If we cannot close above 8574, we could see a move back to test 8553 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8532, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8479.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23840 (+565 or +2.43%)

The DAX climbed this week with a strong +2.43% rise, showing continued bullish strength and upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Dec 01, 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Dec 02, 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 21:00 – EUR CPI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23899. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23959, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24018 and potentially 24138.

If we cannot close above 23781, we could see a move back to test 23721 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23662, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23542.

US

S&P 500 – 6841 (+210 or +3.17%)

The SPX pushed sharply higher this week with a strong +3.17% gain, showing confident and sustained bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Dec 04, 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Dec 04, 02:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6858. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6875, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6892 and potentially 6926.

If we cannot close above 6823, we could see a move back to test 6805 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6788, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6754.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.6543 (+92 or +1.43%)
AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +1.43% gain, showing improving strength and steady bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Dec 03, 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
Dec 01, 11:30 – AUD Company Gross Profits QoQ (Q3)
Dec 02, 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Oct)
Dec 04, 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Dec 04, 02:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6559. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6575, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6591 and potentially 0.6624.

If we cannot close above 0.6526, we could see a move back to test 0.6510 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6494, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6461.

EUR/USD – 1.1595 (+89 or +0.77%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a modest +0.77% rise, showing light but steady bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Dec 01, 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Dec 02, 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 21:00 – EUR CPI (Nov)
Dec 04, 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Dec 04, 02:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1624. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1653, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1682 and potentially 1.1741.

If we cannot close above 1.1565, we could see a move back to test 1.1535 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1506, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1446.

GBP/USD – 1.13229 (+140 or +1.07%)

GBPUSD advanced this week with a +1.07% gain, showing stable strength and continued bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Dec 02, 20:30 – GBP Mortgage Approvals (Oct)
Dec 02, 20:30 – GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Oct)
Dec 02, 18:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Nov)
Dec 04, 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Dec 04, 02:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3262. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3295, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3328 and potentially 1.3393.

If we cannot close above 1.3196, we could see a move back to test 1.3163 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3130, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3065.


USD/JPY – 156.08 (-65 or -0.41%)

USDJPY dipped slightly this week with a -0.41% decline, showing mild bearish pressure and weakening momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Dec 04, 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change (Nov)
Dec 02, 02:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Dec 04, 02:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Nov)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 156.47. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.86, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.25 and potentially 158.03.

If we cannot close above 155.69, we could see a move back to test 155.31 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.92, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.14.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4219 (+167 or +4.12%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +4.12% rise, showing powerful bullish momentum and continued buying strength.


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4229. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4240, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4251 and potentially 4271.

If we cannot close above 4208, we could see a move back to test 4197 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4186, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4165.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 91087 (+4435 or +5.12%)

Bitcoin jumped this week with a strong +5.12% rise, showing robust bullish momentum and strong upside continuation.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 86881. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 87109, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 87338 and potentially 87791.

If we cannot close above 86423, we could see a move back to test 86195 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 85966, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 85413.

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