Market Brief


Are rising geopolitical risks tipping investors toward safe assets and triggering FX volatility?

Is intensifying US - China trade friction and broader geopolitical fragmentation forcing investors to reassess risk, fueling demand for defensive assets and driving currency swings?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8888 (+158 or +1.81%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a strong +1.81% gain, showing clear bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Full Time Employment Change (AUD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8910. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8932, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8955 and potentially 8999.


If we cannot close above 8866, we could see a move back to test 8844 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8821, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8777.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25079 (-184 or -0.73%)

The DAX moved lower this week, posting a -0.73% decline and showing mild bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 21:00 – CPI (Dec) (EUR)
Tue 21:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)
Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25142. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25204, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25267 and potentially 25392.


If we cannot close above 25016, we could see a move back to test 24954 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24891, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24766.

US

S&P 500 – 6893 (-60 or -0.86%)

The SPX continued lower this week, falling -0.86% and maintaining bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Dec) USD
Thu 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Nov) USD
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jan/10) USD

Wed 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6910. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6927, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6945 and potentially 6979.


If we cannot close above 6876, we could see a move back to test 6859 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6841, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6807.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6686 (+1 or +0.01%)

AUDUSD remained flat this week with minimal change, showing consolidation and a lack of clear directional momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Full Time Employment Change (AUD)
Wed 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6703. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6720, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6736 and potentially 0.6770.


If we cannot close above 0.6669, we could see a move back to test 0.6653 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6636, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6603.

EUR/USD – 1.1622 (-10 or -0.09%)

EURUSD edged slightly lower this week, posting a modest -0.09% decline and remaining range-bound.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 21:00 – CPI (Dec) (EUR)
Tue 21:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)
Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR)
Wed 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1651. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1680, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1709 and potentially 1.1767.


If we cannot close above 1.1593, we could see a move back to test 1.1564 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1535, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1477.

GBP/USD – 1.3401 (+6 or +0.04%)

GBPUSD pushed slightly higher this week, gaining +0.04% and maintaining a mild bullish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:00 – Employment Change (GBP)
Tue 18:00 – Unemployment Rate (GBP)
Fri 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP)
Wed 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3434. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3468, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3501 and potentially 1.3569.


If we cannot close above 1.3368, we could see a move back to test 1.3334 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3301, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3234.


USD/JPY – 157.56 (-45 or -0.28%)

USDJPY moved lower this week, declining -0.28% and showing early signs of corrective pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 10:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)
Fri 10:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)
Fri 14:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)
Wed 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.95. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.35, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.74 and potentially 159.53.


If we cannot close above 157.17, we could see a move back to test 156.77 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.38, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.59.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4676 (+151 or +3.34%)

Gold surged strongly this week, rallying +3.34% and showing powerful bullish momentum.


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4688. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4699, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4711 and potentially 4734.


If we cannot close above 4664, we could see a move back to test 4653 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4641, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4618.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 93549 (+3280 or +3.63%)

Bitcoin surged higher this week, gaining +3.63% and maintaining strong bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 93783. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 94017, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 94250 and potentially 94718.


If we cannot close above 93315, we could see a move back to test 93081 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 92848, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 92380.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.