Market Brief


Does bitcoin’s sharp selloff mark capitulation, or could further downside accelerate across crypto markets globally now?

Can central bank decisions and key data releases reshape risk sentiment across global markets this week?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8805 (-83 or -0.93%)

The ASX slipped lower this week with a modest -0.93% decline, showing mild bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)
Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8827. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8849, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8871 and potentially 8915.
If we cannot close above 8783, we could see a move back to test 8761 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8739, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8695.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24514 (-565 or -2.25%)

The DAX moved sharply lower this week with a -2.25% loss, signalling strong bearish momentum and continued downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)
Fri 00:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)
Tue 18:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24575. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24637, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24698 and potentially 24820.
If we cannot close above 24453, we could see a move back to test 24391 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24330, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24208.

US

S&P 500 – 6933 (+40 or +0.58%)

The SPX edged higher this week with a +0.58% gain, maintaining a steady upward bias and modest bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thu 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6950. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6968, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6985 and potentially 7020.
If we cannot close above 6916, we could see a move back to test 6898 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6881, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6846.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6949 (+263 or +3.93%)

AUDUSD pushed higher this week with a strong +3.93% advance, showing clear bullish momentum and improving upside structure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)
Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)
Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thu 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6517. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6534, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6551 and potentially 0.6592.
If we cannot close above 0.6483, we could see a move back to test 0.6466 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6449, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6408.

EUR/USD – 1.1850 (+228 or +1.96%)

EURUSD continued to trend higher this week with a +1.96% gain, reinforcing bullish momentum and steady upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)
Fri 00:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)
Tue 18:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thu 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)


For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1726. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1755, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1784 and potentially 1.1843.
If we cannot close above 1.1666, we could see a move back to test 1.1637 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1608, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1549.

GBP/USD – 1.3685 (+284 or +2.12%)

GBPUSD rallied higher this week with a solid +2.12% gain, showing renewed bullish momentum and upside continuation.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)
Thu 23:00 – BoE Monetary Policy Report (GBP)
Tue 00:30 – BoE Jackson Speech (GBP)
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thu 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3719. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3753, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3787 and potentially 1.3856.
If we cannot close above 1.3651, we could see a move back to test 1.3617 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3583, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3514.


USD/JPY – 155.32 (-224 or -1.42%)

USDJPY pulled back this week with a -1.42% decline, signalling growing bearish momentum after recent highs.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 10:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)
Sun 11:00 – Snap Election (JPY)
Fri 10:30 – Household Spending YoY (JPY)
Tue 02:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thu 00:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.86. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.24, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.62 and potentially 149.41.
If we cannot close above 147.08, we could see a move back to test 146.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.32, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.53.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4875 (+199 or +4.26%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +4.26% rally, confirming powerful bullish momentum and safe-haven demand.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4887. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4899, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4912 and potentially 4936.

If we cannot close above 4863, we could see a move back to test 4851 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4838, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4814.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 77328 (-16221 or -17.34%)

Bitcoin dropped sharply this week with a -17.34% selloff, showing strong bearish momentum and elevated downside volatility.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 77521. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 77715, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 77908 and potentially 78295.
If we cannot close above 77135, we could see a move back to test 76941 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76748, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 76361.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.