Market Brief


Is strong US consumption reinforcing bullish momentum across equities and the dollar?

Could continued economic resilience delay rate cuts and extend the current market rally?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8945 (+29 or +0.33%)

The ASX moved slightly higher this week with a modest +0.33% gain, showing mild bullish momentum but limited follow-through strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:00 – Westpac Leading Index MoM (AUD)

Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Sat 10:00 – ANZAC Day (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8967. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8990, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9012 and potentially 9057.

If we cannot close above 8923, we could see a move back to test 8900 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8878, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8833.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24430 (+909 or +3.86%)

The DAX surged higher this week with a strong +3.86% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued upward trend strength. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24491. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24552, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24613 and potentially 24735.

If we cannot close above 24369, we could see a move back to test 24308 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24247, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24125.

US

S&P 500 – 7082 (+318 or +4.7%)

The SPX pushed sharply higher this week with a +4.7% gain, showing strong bullish momentum and continued upside expansion.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7100. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7117, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7135 and potentially 7171.

If we cannot close above 7064, we could see a move back to test 7047 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7029, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6993.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7151 (+115 or +1.63%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +1.63% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and continued upward price structure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:00 – Westpac Leading Index MoM (AUD)

Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Sat 10:00 – ANZAC Day (AUD) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7169. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7187, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7204 and potentially 0.7240.

If we cannot close above 0.7133, we could see a move back to test 0.7115 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7098, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7062.

EUR/USD – 1.1753 (+66 or +0.56%)

EURUSD continued higher this week with a +0.56% gain, maintaining a steady bullish trend with moderate upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:00 – ECB Guindos Speech (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1782. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1812, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1841 and potentially 1.1900.

If we cannot close above 1.1724, we could see a move back to test 1.1694 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1665, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1606.

GBP/USD – 1.3492 (+90 or +0.67%)

GBPUSD moved higher this week with a +0.67% gain, showing controlled bullish momentum and gradual upside continuation.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Employment Change (GBP)

Tue 16:00 – Unemployment Rate (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3526. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3560, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3593 and potentially 1.3661.

If we cannot close above 1.3458, we could see a move back to test 1.3424 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3391, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3323.


USD/JPY – 158.96 (-73 or -0.46%)

USDJPY pulled back this week with a -0.46% move, showing mild bearish pressure after recent upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)

Wed 09:50 – Exports YoY (JPY) 

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.36. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.75, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.15 and potentially 160.95.

If we cannot close above 158.56, we could see a move back to test 158.17 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.77, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.97.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4794 (+74 or +1.57%)

Gold moved higher this week with a +1.57% gain, showing renewed bullish momentum and continued safe-haven demand strength. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4806. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4818, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4830 and potentially 4854.

If we cannot close above 4782, we could see a move back to test 4770 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4758, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4734.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 74251 (+3207 or +4.51%)

Bitcoin surged higher this week with a strong +4.51% gain, showing powerful bullish momentum and continued upside expansion. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 74437. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 74622, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 74807 and potentially 75179.

If we cannot close above 74065, we could see a move back to test 73880 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 73695, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 73323.

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