Market Brief


Is improving investor sentiment now driving stronger momentum back into crypto and growth-focused assets?

Could continued buying pressure see Bitcoin and global indices extend into another bullish breakout phase?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8659  (-65 or -0.75%)

The ASX moved lower this week, posting a -0.75% decline and showing weaker bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8681. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8702, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8724 and potentially 8767.

If we cannot close above 8637, we could see a move back to test 8616 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8594, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8551.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24263 (-41 or -0.17%)

The DAX edged lower this week with a mild -0.17% decline, showing signs of slowing bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24324. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24384, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24445 and potentially 24566.

If we cannot close above 24202, we could see a move back to test 24142 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24081, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23960.

US

S&P 500 – 7377 (+143 or +1.98%)

The SPX surged higher this week, posting a strong +1.98% gain and showing solid bullish momentum across global equities.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Wed 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)  

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7395. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7414, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7432 and potentially 7469.

If we cannot close above 7359, we could see a move back to test 7340 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7322, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7285.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7234 (+32 or +0.44%)

The AUDUSD pushed higher this week with a +0.44% gain, showing improving bullish momentum and stronger market sentiment.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)  

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Wed 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)  

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7252. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7269, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7288 and potentially 0.7324.

If we cannot close above 0.7216, we could see a move back to test 0.7198 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7180, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7144.

EUR/USD – 1.1769 (+45 or +0.38%)

The EURUSD continued higher this week, posting a +0.38% gain and maintaining steady bullish momentum into the close.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)  

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Wed 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1796. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1826, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1855 and potentially 1.1914.

If we cannot close above 1.1738, we could see a move back to test 1.1708 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1679, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1620.

GBP/USD – 1.3596 (+19 or +0.14%)

The GBPUSD edged higher this week with a modest +0.14% gain, continuing to show stable bullish price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Thu 16:00 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP) 

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Wed 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3630. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3664, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3698 and potentially 1.3766.

If we cannot close above 1.3562, we could see a move back to test 1.3528 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3494, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3426.


USD/JPY – 156.95 (-6 or -0.04%)

The USDJPY remained relatively flat this week, posting a slight -0.04% decline and showing mixed market direction.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY) 

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Wed 22:30 – PPI MoM (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.38. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.74, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.12 and potentially 158.91.

If we cannot close above 156.52, we could see a move back to test 156.16 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.78, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.99.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4691 (+95 or +2.07%)

Gold rallied strongly this week, posting a +2.07% gain and showing renewed bullish momentum across commodity markets.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4703. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4714, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4726 and potentially 4750.

If we cannot close above 4679, we could see a move back to test 4668 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4656, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4632.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  81426 (+2549 or +3.23%)

Bitcoin surged higher this week with a powerful +3.23% gain, showing strong bullish momentum and increased buying pressure. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 81629. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 81833, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 82037 and potentially 82444.

If we cannot close above 81223, we could see a move back to test 81019 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 80815, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 80408.

DISCLAIMER

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