Market Brief


Is rising inflation pressure now starting to slow momentum across global equity and crypto markets?

Could higher bond yields and stronger oil prices trigger another sharp shift in market sentiment?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8529 (-130 or -1.5%)

The ASX moved lower this week with a -1.5% decline, showing weaker momentum and continued bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8550. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8572, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8593 and potentially 8636.

If we cannot close above 8508, we could see a move back to test 8486 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8465, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8422.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23756 (-507 or -2.09%)

The DAX sold off sharply this week with a strong -2.09% decline, showing clear bearish momentum across the market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23815. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23875, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23934 and potentially 24053.

If we cannot close above 23697, we could see a move back to test 23637 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23578, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23459.

US

S&P 500 – 7367 (-10 or -0.14%)

The SPX edged lower this week with a modest -0.14% decline, showing signs of short-term market weakness.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7385. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7404, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7422 and potentially 7459.

If we cannot close above 7349, we could see a move back to test 7330 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7312, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7275.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7129 (-105 or -1.45%)

AUDUSD moved lower this week with a -1.45% decline, reflecting continued bearish pressure and weaker market sentiment.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD) 

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7147. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7165, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7182 and potentially 0.7218.

If we cannot close above 0.7111, we could see a move back to test 0.7093 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7076, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7040.

EUR/USD – 1.1617 (-150 or -1.27%)

EURUSD declined this week with a -1.27% move lower, showing ongoing bearish momentum against the US dollar.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR) 

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1646. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1675, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1704 and potentially 1.1762.

If we cannot close above 1.1588, we could see a move back to test 1.1559 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1530, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1472.

GBP/USD – 1.3311 (-285 or -2.1%)

GBPUSD dropped sharply this week with a -2.1% decline, showing strong downside momentum and market weakness.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Employment Change (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP) 

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3344. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3378, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3411 and potentially 1.3477.

If we cannot close above 1.3278, we could see a move back to test 1.3244 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3211, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3145.


USD/JPY – 158.90 (+195 or +1.24%)

USDJPY pushed higher this week with a solid +1.24% gain, reflecting strong bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:50 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY) 

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Minutes (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.30. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.69, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.09 and potentially 160.89.

If we cannot close above 158.50, we could see a move back to test 158.11 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.71, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.91.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4530 (-161 or -3.43%)

Gold moved sharply lower this week with a -3.43% decline, showing aggressive bearish momentum and weaker sentiment. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4541. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4553, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4564 and potentially 4587.

If we cannot close above 4519, we could see a move back to test 4507 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4496, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4473.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  76891 (-4535 or -5.57%)

Bitcoin sold off heavily this week with a strong -5.57% decline, reflecting increased volatility and bearish market pressure. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 77083. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 77276, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 77468 and potentially 77852.

If we cannot close above 76699, we could see a move back to test 76506 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76314, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 75930.

DISCLAIMER

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