Market Brief


Can the yen recover from recent weakness?

Will dollar strength keep USDJPY supported

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8837  (-92 or -1.03%)

The ASX moved lower this week, falling -1.03% and showing continued bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (May) (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (May) (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (May) (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8859. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8881, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8903 and potentially 8947.

If we cannot close above 8815, we could see a move back to test 8793 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8771, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8727.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24996 (-42 or -0.17%)

The DAX edged lower this week, posting a modest -0.17% decline and reflecting soft bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (Jun) (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) (EUR)

Mon 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (May) (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25058. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25121, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25183 and potentially 25308.

If we cannot close above 24934, we could see a move back to test 24871 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24809, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24684.

US

S&P 500 –  7480 (-24 or -0.32%)

The SPX moved slightly lower this week, declining -0.32% and showing mild bearish weakness from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 00:00 – New Home Sales (May) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7499. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7517, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7536 and potentially 7574.

If we cannot close above 7461, we could see a move back to test 7443 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7424, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7386.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7009 (-60 or -0.85%)

The AUDUSD moved lower this week, falling -0.85% and showing steady bearish pressure against last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (May) (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (May) (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (May) (AUD)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 00:00 – New Home Sales (May) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7027. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7044, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7062 and potentially 0.7097.

If we cannot close above 0.6991, we could see a move back to test 0.6974 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6956, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6921.

EUR/USD – 1.1463 (-133 or -1.15%)

The EURUSD trended lower this week, posting a -1.15% decline and showing clear bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (Jun) (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) (EUR)

Mon 17:00 – Retail Sales MoM (May) (EUR)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 00:00 – New Home Sales (May) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1492. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1520, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1549 and potentially 1.1606.

If we cannot close above 1.1434, we could see a move back to test 1.1406 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1377, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1320.

GBP/USD – 1.3218 (-223 or -1.66%)

The GBPUSD moved sharply lower this week, dropping -1.66% and showing strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 20:00 – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun) (GBP)

Thu 20:00 – CBI Distributive Trades (Jun) (GBP)

Mon 18:30 – Mortgage Approvals (May) (GBP)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 00:00 – New Home Sales (May) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3251. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3284, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3317 and potentially 1.3383.

If we cannot close above 1.3185, we could see a move back to test 1.3152 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3119, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3053.


USD/JPY – 161.51 (+139 or +0.87%)

The USDJPY moved higher this week, gaining +0.87% and showing bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)

Thu 06:00 – BOJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Thu 11:00 – BOJ Tamura Speech (JPY)

Tue 22:15 – ADP Employment Change Weekly (USD)

Thu 00:00 – New Home Sales (May) (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 161.91. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 162.32, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 162.72 and potentially 163.53.

If we cannot close above 161.11, we could see a move back to test 160.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 160.30, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 159.49.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4196  (-98 or -2.28%)

Gold moved lower this week, falling -2.28% and showing strong bearish pressure across the market. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4206. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4217, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4227 and potentially 4248.

If we cannot close above 4186, we could see a move back to test 4175 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4165, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4144.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  63732 (-1607 or -2.46% )

Bitcoin moved sharply lower this week, dropping -2.46% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63891. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 64051, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 64210 and potentially 64529.

If we cannot close above 63573, we could see a move back to test 63413 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 63254, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62935.

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