Market Brief


Can AUDUSD recover from its recent weakness and regain bullish momentum?

Or will persistent US dollar demand and geopolitical uncertainty keep the pair under further selling pressure?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8797 (-57 or -0.64%)

The ASX moved lower this week, falling -0.64% and showing modest bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 11:00 – Consumer Inflation Expectations (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8819. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8841, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8863 and potentially 8907.

If we cannot close above 8775, we could see a move back to test 8753 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8731, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8687.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24943 (-900 or -3.48%)

The DAX dropped sharply this week, losing -3.48% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Thu 14:30 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – CPI (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25005. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25068, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25130 and potentially 25255.

If we cannot close above 24881, we could see a move back to test 24818 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24756, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24631.

US

S&P 500 –  7550 (+43 or +0.57%)

The SPX edged higher this week, gaining +0.57% and maintaining modest bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7569. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7588, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7607 and potentially 7644.

If we cannot close above 7531, we could see a move back to test 7512 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7493, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7456.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.6932 (-2 or -0.03%)

AUDUSD slipped slightly this week, declining -0.03% and remaining broadly flat with mild bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (AUD)

Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (AUD)

Thu 11:00 – Consumer Inflation Expectations (AUD) 

Tue 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6949. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6967, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6984 and potentially 0.7019.

If we cannot close above 0.6915, we could see a move back to test 0.6897 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6880, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6845.

EUR/USD – 1.1390 (-44 or -0.38%)

EURUSD moved lower this week, falling -0.38% and showing continued bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Thu 14:30 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – CPI (EUR) 

Tue 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1418. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1447, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1475 and potentially 1.1532.

If we cannot close above 1.1362, we could see a move back to test 1.1333 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1305, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1248.

GBP/USD – 1.3373 (+27 or +0.2%)

GBPUSD edged higher this week, gaining +0.20% and showing mild bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 09:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Thu 16:00 – GDP MoM (GBP)

Thu 16:00 – Goods Trade Balance (GBP) 

Tue 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3406. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3440, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3473 and potentially 1.3540.

If we cannot close above 1.3340, we could see a move back to test 1.3306 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3273, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3206.


USD/JPY – 162.07 (+37 or +0.23%)

USDJPY moved higher this week, gaining +0.23% and maintaining modest bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 14:30 – Industrial Production MoM (JPY)

Wed 09:50 – Machinery Orders MoM (JPY)

Wed 09:50 – Machinery Orders YoY (JPY) 

Tue 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (USD)

Tue 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 162.48. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 162.88, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 163.29 and potentially 164.10.

If we cannot close above 161.66, we could see a move back to test 161.26 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 160.85, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 160.04.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4072 (-123 or -2.93%)

Gold fell sharply this week, declining -2.93% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4082. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4092, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4103 and potentially 4123.

If we cannot close above 4062, we could see a move back to test 4052 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4041, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4021.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  63701 (+40 or +0.06%)

BTC edged higher this week, gaining +0.06% and remaining broadly stable with mild bullish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63860. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 64020, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 64179 and potentially 64497.

If we cannot close above 63542, we could see a move back to test 63382 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 63223, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62905.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.