Market Brief


Is the stronger dollar becoming the key driver across global markets?

Could further Fed tightening expectations extend moves in currencies, equities and Gold?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 9103  (+2 or +0.02%)

The ASX edged higher this week with a +0.02% gain, showing stable price action and mild bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 11:00 – RBA Jones Speech (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9126. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9149, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9171 and potentially 9217.

If we cannot close above 9080, we could see a move back to test 9057 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9035, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8989.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 26467  (+336 or +1.29%)

The DAX moved strongly higher this week with a +1.29% gain, showing solid bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:00 – Germany Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 26533. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 26599, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26666 and potentially 26798.

If we cannot close above 26401, we could see a move back to test 26335 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 26268, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 26136.

US

S&P 500 –  7677  (-6 or -0.08%)

The SPX edged lower this week by -0.08%, showing relatively flat price action with mild bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7696. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7715, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7735 and potentially 7773.

If we cannot close above 7658, we could see a move back to test 7639 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7619, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7581.

FOREX

AUD/USD –    0.7160 (-14 or -0.2%)

AUDUSD moved slightly lower this week by -0.20%, showing mild bearish momentum and continued downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 11:00 – RBA Jones Speech (AUD)

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7178. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7196, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7214 and potentially 0.7250.

If we cannot close above 0.7142, we could see a move back to test 0.7124 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7106, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7070.

EUR/USD –  1.1590 (-92 or -0.79%)

EURUSD moved lower this week by -0.79%, showing clear bearish momentum and continued selling pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 22:00 – Germany Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1619. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1648, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1677 and potentially 1.1735.

If we cannot close above 1.1561, we could see a move back to test 1.1532 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1503, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1445.

GBP/USD –  1.3541 (-108 or -0.79%)

GBPUSD declined this week by -0.79%, showing clear bearish momentum and continued downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Fri 18:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)

Fri 18:50 – BoE Gov Bailey Speech (GBP)

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3575. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3609, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3643 and potentially 1.3710.

If we cannot close above 1.3507, we could see a move back to test 1.3473 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3439, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3372.


USD/JPY –  159.84 (+105 or +0.66%)

USDJPY moved higher this week with a +0.66% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and continued buying strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Tue 09:50 – Capital Spending YoY (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Household Spending YoY (JPY)

Wed 22:15 – ADP Employment Change (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 160.24. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.64, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.04 and potentially 161.84.

If we cannot close above 159.44, we could see a move back to test 159.04 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.64, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.84.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4437  (-185 or -4%)

Gold fell sharply this week by -4.00%, showing strong bearish momentum and significant selling pressure.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4448. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4459, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4470 and potentially 4492.

If we cannot close above 4426, we could see a move back to test 4415 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4404, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4382.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  77627 (+232 or +0.3%)

Bitcoin edged higher this week with a +0.30% gain, showing mild bullish momentum and relatively stable price action.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 77821. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 78015, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 78209 and potentially 78597.

If we cannot close above 77433, we could see a move back to test 77239 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 77045, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 76657.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.