Market Brief


Will surging oil prices and growing concerns over global energy supplies extend the sell-off across major equity markets?

Could renewed inflation pressures and escalating geopolitical tensions weaken investor confidence and drive stocks even lower?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8755  (-281 or -3.11%)

The ASX moved sharply lower this week, falling 3.11% and showing strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 12:30 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Wed 11:00 – Westpac Leading Index MoM (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8777. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8799, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8821 and potentially 8864.

If we cannot close above 8733, we could see a move back to test 8711 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8689, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8646.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25518 (-504 or -1.94%)

The DAX trended lower this week, declining 1.94% and maintaining clear bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 20:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25582. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25646, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25709 and potentially 25837.

If we cannot close above 25454, we could see a move back to test 25390 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25327, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25199.

US

S&P 500 –  7627  (-85 or -1.1%)

The SPX moved lower this week, falling 1.10% and showing continued bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7646. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7665, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7684 and potentially 7722.

If we cannot close above 7608, we could see a move back to test 7589 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7570, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7532.

FOREX

AUD/USD –    0.7144 (-63 or -0.87%)

AUDUSD trended lower this week, declining 0.87% and showing continued bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 12:30 – RBA Hunter Speech (AUD)

Mon 18:00 – Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment (AUD)

Wed 11:00 – Westpac Leading Index MoM (AUD) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7162. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7180, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7198 and potentially 0.7233.

If we cannot close above 0.7126, we could see a move back to test 0.7108 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7090, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7055.

EUR/USD –  1.1587 (-29 or -0.25%)

EURUSD edged lower this week, declining 0.25% and showing mild bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Thu 19:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 20:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1616. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1645, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1674 and potentially 1.1732.

If we cannot close above 1.1558, we could see a move back to test 1.1529 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1500, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1442.

GBP/USD –  1.3516 (-2 or -0.01%)

GBPUSD remained almost unchanged this week, slipping 0.01% and showing neutral momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 16:00 – Unemployment Rate (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP)

Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3550. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3584, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3617 and potentially 1.3685.

If we cannot close above 1.3482, we could see a move back to test 1.3448 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3415, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3347.


USD/JPY –  153.71 (-230 or -1.47%)

USDJPY moved sharply lower this week, falling 1.47% and showing strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY)

Fri 13:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154.09. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 154.48, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 154.86 and potentially 155.63.

If we cannot close above 153.33, we could see a move back to test 152.94 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 152.56, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 151.79.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4345  (-80 or -1.81%)

Gold moved lower this week, declining 1.81% and showing clear bearish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4356. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4367, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4378 and potentially 4399.

If we cannot close above 4334, we could see a move back to test 4323 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4312, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4291.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  76767 (-3348 or -4.18%)

Bitcoin declined sharply this week, falling 4.18% and showing strong bearish momentum. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 76959. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 77151, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 77343 and potentially 77727.

If we cannot close above 76575, we could see a move back to test 76383 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76191, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 75807.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.