Market Brief


Can the SPX continue pushing higher as rising bond yields and renewed inflation concerns challenge risk sentiment?

Will tomorrow’s RBA decision trigger a bigger move across the ASX and AUDUSD?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8681  (-22 or -0.25%)

The price of the ASX last week was 8703 and this week it is 8681. The ASX edged lower by -0.25%, showing mild bearish momentum this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8703. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8724, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8746 and potentially 8790.

If we cannot close above 8659, we could see a move back to test 8638 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8616, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8572.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25479 (+107 or +0.42%)

The price of the DAX last week was 25372 and this week it is 25479. The DAX moved higher by +0.42%, maintaining positive bullish momentum this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Wed 17:55 – Unemployment Change (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25543. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25606, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25670 and potentially 25797.

If we cannot close above 25415, we could see a move back to test 25352 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25288, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25161.

US

S&P 500 –  7725  (+55 or +0.72%)

The price of the SPX last week was 7670 and this week it is 7725. The SPX climbed +0.72% this week, showing continued strength and bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7744. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7764, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7783 and potentially 7822.

If we cannot close above 7706, we could see a move back to test 7686 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7667, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7628.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7019 (-108 or -1.52%)

The price of AUDUSD last week was 0.7127 and this week it is 0.7019. AUDUSD fell -1.52% this week, showing clear bearish momentum and sustained downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD) 

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7037. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7054, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7072 and potentially 0.7107.

If we cannot close above 0.7001, we could see a move back to test 0.6984 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6966, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6931.

EUR/USD –  1.1384 (-99 or -0.86%)

The price of EURUSD last week was 1.1483 and this week it is 1.1384. EURUSD declined -0.86% this week, maintaining bearish momentum and downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 16:45 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Wed 17:55 – Unemployment Change (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (EUR) 

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1412. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1441, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1469 and potentially 1.1526.

If we cannot close above 1.1356, we could see a move back to test 1.1327 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1299, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1242.

GBP/USD –  1.3238 (-152 or -1.14%)

The price of GBPUSD last week was 1.3390 and this week it is 1.3238. GBPUSD dropped -1.14% this week, showing strong bearish momentum and continued selling pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Wed 16:00 – Current Account (GBP)

Fri 18:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP) 

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3271. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3304, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3337 and potentially 1.3403.

If we cannot close above 1.3205, we could see a move back to test 1.3172 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3139, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3073.


USD/JPY –  157.77 (+105 or +0.67%)

The price of USDJPY last week was 156.72 and this week it is 157.77. USDJPY gained +0.67% this week, showing continued bullish momentum and upward strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – Industrial Production MoM (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY)

Thu 09:50 – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (JPY) 

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.16. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.56, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.95 and potentially 159.74.

If we cannot close above 157.38, we could see a move back to test 156.98 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.59, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.80.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4212  (-153 or -3.51%)

The price of Gold last week was 4365 and this week it is 4212. Gold fell sharply by -3.51%, showing strong bearish momentum and significant downside pressure. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4223. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4233, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4244 and potentially 4265.

If we cannot close above 4201, we could see a move back to test 4191 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4180, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4159.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  83818 (+2167 or +2.65%)

The price of BTC last week was 81651 and this week it is 83818. BTC surged +2.65% this week, showing strong bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 84028. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 84237, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 84447 and potentially 84866.

If we cannot close above 83608, we could see a move back to test 83399 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 83189, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 82770.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.