This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6766 (+109 or +1.61%)
Another weekly gain for the ASX, though we now face trend line resistance.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Cash Rate
Tues 19:20 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the ASX close strongly above 6875. Should this occur, a move into 7020 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7140 and 7240.
Failure to close strongly above 6875 means a potential move into 6745. 6650 is the next support level down if 6745 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 6535.
EUROPE
DAX – 13339 (+491 or +3.82%)
The DAX is looking to break through the year-long downtrend line but is there enough behind this move for it to be sustained?
For the DAX to move higher we would like to see it hold above 13250. Should this occur then 13375 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 13565 and 13972 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 13250, we will look for a move into support at 12965. A strong break and close below this handle and 12635 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 12445 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 3914 (+153 or +4.07%)
The SPX ripped higher despite a rout in tech stocks during a disappointing week of earnings, positive signs for bulls?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jolts Jobs Openings
Thurs 05:00 – FOMC Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 01:00 – ISM Services PMI
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3915. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3965; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 4095 and 4145.
If we cannot close above 3915, we could see this market move down into 3840. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3740, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 3665.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6411 (+29 or +0.45%)
The Aussie Dollar closes almost flat after what turned out to be a false breakout in the middle of the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Cash Rate
Tues 19:20 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.6415. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6485. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6580. Should momentum to the upside be really strong then 0.6670 could be targeted.
If this market cannot close above 0.6415, we could see a move down into 0.6305. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6205, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6075.
EUR/USD – 0.9965 (+104 or +1.05%)
Another positive week for the Euro but it must now hold at parity for a continued move to the upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 05:00 – FOMC Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings
For a move higher we would like to see the Euro hold above 0.9950. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.0000. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.0090 and 1.0200.
If the EURO cannot hold above 0.9950, we will see a move into 0.9875. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.9810, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 0.9700.
GBP/USD – 1.1610 (+316 or +2.8%)
The GBP continues to display strong resilience as it fully recovers from the disastrous Truss Government.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 23:00 – BoE Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Report
Thurs 23:30 – BoE Gov Bailey speaks
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close strongly above 1.1610 before a break higher into 1.1740. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong pushback into 1.1880 If upside momentum is really strong then a move back into 1.2000 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to close strongly above 1.1610, we will look for a move down to 1.1490. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.1410 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.1330.
USD/JPY – 147.47 (-16 or -0.11%)
A rare quiet week for the Dollar Yen as it closes flat – our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jolts Jobs Openings
Thurs 05:00 – FOMC Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 01:00 – ISM Services PMI
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 145. Should this occur we will look for a move into 147.75, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 150 and potentially 151.80.
If we cannot hold above 145, we could see a move back to test 143.25 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 140.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1644 (-13 or -0.78%)
Gold faded all of the previous week’s gains and now looks set to threaten the recent double-bottom lows.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 05:00 – FOMC Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 23:30 – Non Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings
For a move higher we need to see this market close above 1652. Should this occur we could see a move into 1680, and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1697. If momentum is strong then 1710 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1652, we need to see it hold at 1645. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1615, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1590.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 20745 (+1565 or +8.16%)
A promising week for BTC bulls as an upside breakout looks to be on the cards.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 20000. Should this occur we could see a move into 21715 before retesting 23675. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 25875.
Failure to hold above 20000 could see a move into 18700. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 17560. A close below this level and 14000 can’t be ruled out, maybe even a 12325 print.
