Market Brief


Are shifting central bank expectations now the key driver behind currency market direction?

Could diverging policy outlooks create stronger trends across major FX pairs?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8724  (-9 or -0.1%)

The ASX edged lower this week with a slight -0.1% move, showing mild downside pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8746. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8768, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8789 and potentially 8833.

If we cannot close above 8702, we could see a move back to test 8680 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8659, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8615.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24304 (+158 or +0.65% )

The DAX moved higher this week with a +0.65% gain, showing steady bullish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – ECB de Guindos Speech (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24365. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24426, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24486 and potentially 24608.

If we cannot close above 24243, we could see a move back to test 24182 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24122, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24000.

US

S&P 500 – 7234 (+86 or +1.2%)

The SPX climbed strongly this week with a +1.2% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wed 00:00 – JOLTs Job Openings (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7252. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7270, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7288 and potentially 7324.

If we cannot close above 7216, we could see a move back to test 7198 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7180, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7144.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7202 (+56 or +0.78%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +0.78% gain, showing improved bullish momentum against last week’s price action.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD) 

Wed 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wed 00:00 – JOLTs Job Openings (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7220. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7238, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7256 and potentially 0.7292.

If we cannot close above 0.7184, we could see a move back to test 0.7166 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7148, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7112.

EUR/USD – 1.1722 (+11 or +0.09%)

EURUSD edged higher this week with a small +0.09% gain, showing mild upside momentum but limited overall movement.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 22:30 – ECB de Guindos Speech (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Wed 18:00 – Retail Sales YoY (EUR) 

Wed 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wed 00:00 – JOLTs Job Openings (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1751. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1781, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1810 and potentially 1.1869.

If we cannot close above 1.1693, we could see a move back to test 1.1663 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1634, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1575.

GBP/USD – 1.3577 (+62 or +0.46%)

GBPUSD moved higher this week with a +0.46% gain, showing moderate bullish momentum and improved upside strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 02:30 – BoE Woods Speech (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index YoY (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index MoM (GBP) 

Wed 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wed 00:00 – JOLTs Job Openings (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3611. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3645, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3679 and potentially 1.3747.

If we cannot close above 1.3543, we could see a move back to test 1.3509 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3475, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3407.


USD/JPY – 157.01 (-249 or -1.56%)

USDJPY fell sharply this week with a -1.56% drop, showing clear bearish pressure and strong downside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 09:50 – BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Average Cash Earnings YoY (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Overtime Pay YoY (JPY) 

Wed 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wed 00:00 – JOLTs Job Openings (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.40. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.80, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.19 and potentially 158.97.

If we cannot close above 156.62, we could see a move back to test 156.22 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.83, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.05.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4596 (-84 or -1.79%)

Gold moved lower this week with a -1.79% decline, showing clear bearish pressure and weaker momentum compared to last week. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4607. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4619, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4630 and potentially 4653.

If we cannot close above 4585, we could see a move back to test 4573 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4562, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4539.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  78877 (+525 or +0.67%)

BTC moved higher this week with a +0.67% gain, showing steady upside momentum and continued buyer support.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 79074. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 79271, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 79469 and potentially 79863.

If we cannot close above 78680, we could see a move back to test 78483 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 78285, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 77891.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.