This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8337 (+59 or +0.71%)
AU200 pushes higher with a strong 59-point gain — bullish momentum building as the index eyes further upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8358. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8379, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8400 and potentially 8439.
If we cannot close above 8316, we could see a move back to test 8295 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8274, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8195.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23768 (+87 or +0.37%)
DAX30 edges higher with a modest 87-point gain — slow upward momentum, but bulls are still in control.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR CPI (Apr)
Thu 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23827. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23886, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23946 and potentially 24065.
If we cannot close above 23709, we could see a move back to test 23650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23591, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23471.
US
S&P 500 – 5915 (+175 or +3.05%)
US500 surges with a powerful 175-point rally — strong bullish breakout as momentum accelerates to new highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5929. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5945, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5960 and potentially 5989.
If we cannot close above 5900, we could see a move back to test 5885 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5870, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5841.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6416 (-14 or -0.22%)
AUDUSD dips slightly — mild bearish pressure as price edges lower, but momentum remains weak and range-bound.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6432. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6448, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6465 and potentially 0.6496.
If we cannot close above 0.6400, we could see a move back to test 0.6384 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6368, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6337.
EUR/USD – 1.1181 (-59 or -0.52%)
EURUSD slips 59 pips — steady bearish drift as sellers regain control, but no major breakdown yet.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR CPI (Apr)
Thu 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thu 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (May)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1219. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1257, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1295 and potentially 1.1321.
If we cannot close above 1.1143, we could see a move back to test 1.1105 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1067, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1039.
GBP/USD – 1.3299 (+6 or +0.05%)
GBPUSD holds steady with a slight 6-pip gain — flat trend, showing indecision as market awaits fresh catalysts.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3332. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3365, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3398 and potentially 1.3465.
If we cannot close above 1.3266, we could see a move back to test 1.3233 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3200, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3133.
USD/JPY – 145.17 (-71 or -0.49%)
USDJPY slips 71 pips — mild bearish correction as momentum eases, but overall trend remains relatively stable.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)
Thu 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 145.52. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.89, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.25 and potentially 146.98.
If we cannot close above 144.82, we could see a move back to test 144.45 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 144.09, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 143.35.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3220 (-55 or -1.68%)
Gold retreats 55 points — moderate bearish move as sellers take control, signaling potential for deeper correction ahead.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3228. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3236, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3245 and potentially 3260.
If we cannot close above 3212, we could see a move back to test 3204 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3195, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3180.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 104926 (+38 or +0.04%)
Bitcoin holds flat with just a 38-point move — consolidation continues as traders await the next breakout signal.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 105188. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 105451, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 105713 and potentially 106237.
If we cannot close above 104664, we could see a move back to test 104401 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 104139, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 103615.
