This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7490 (-146 or -1.91%)
The ASX is slightly down from the all time high resistance level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7508. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7525, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7543 and potentially 7586.
If we cannot close above 7473, we could see a move back to test 7456 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7438, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7401.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16604(-194 or -1.15%)
The DAX is holding above its all time highs, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Tue 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Wed 19:20 – EUR ECB Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 16641. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 16678, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 16715 and potentially 16777.
If we cannot close above 16567, we could see a move back to test 16530 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 16493, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 16431.
US
S&P 500 – 4703 (-75 or -1.57%)
The SPX500 has rebounded slightly from its highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD Balance of trade
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 00:30 – USD CPI
Fri 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4715. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4740, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4767 and potentially 4815.
If we cannot close above 4680, we could see a move back to test 4655 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4627, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4578.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6713(-97 or -1.42%)
AUDUSD has seen a multi day uptrend, will the trend continue through the new year?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Wed 00:30 – USD Balance of trade
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 00:30 – USD CPI
Fri 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6730. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6765, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6789 and potentially 0.6854.
If we cannot close above 0.6707, we could see a move back to test 0.6678 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6651, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6590.
EUR/USD – 1.0936 (-99 or -0.9%)
The EURUSD has found support above its most recent highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:00 – EUR PMI
Fri 21:00 – EUR CPI
Wed 01:45 – USD PMI
Thur 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1057. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1085, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1112 and potentially 1.1168.
If we cannot close above 1.1008, we could see a move back to test 1.0982 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0958, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0908.
GBP/USD – 1.2709 (-12 or -0.09%)
GBPUSD has closed near its monthly highs following the current market trends.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 01:45 – USD PMI
Thur 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2739. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2770, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2802 and potentially 1.2872.
If we cannot close above 1.2680, we could see a move back to test 1.2650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2622, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2560.
USD/JPY – 144.77 (+348 or +2.46%)
Up over 2% this week, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 01:45 – USD PMI
Thur 02:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 145.11. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.83, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.55 and potentially 147.22.
If we cannot close above 145.42, we could see a move back to test 144.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.99, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 143.29.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2044 (-21 or -1.02%)
Gold is finding support after a volatile week of breaking the highs.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2050. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2060, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2071 and potentially 2106.
If we cannot close above 2029, we could see a move back to test 2019 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2007, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1978.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 43757 (-1056 or -2.36%)
Finding resistance above 44,000 all eyes are on the ETF news.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 43874. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 43998, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 44193 and potentially 44547.
If we cannot close above 43640, we could see a move back to test 43415 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 43180, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 42622.
