This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8913 (+101 or +1.15%)
Strong upside move, +1.15%. Momentum building, trend looks firm with bullish continuation potential this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8935. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8958, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8981 and potentially 9025.
If we cannot close above 8890, we could see a move back to test 8867 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8844, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8800.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24412 (+198 or +0.82%)
Solid upward push, +0.82%. Market shows steady strength, confirming bullish momentum after last week’s gains.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jul)
Thu 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Mon 25, 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24473. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24534, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24595 and potentially 24717.
If we cannot close above 24351, we could see a move back to test 24290 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24229, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24107.
US
S&P 500 – 6459 (+69 or +1.08%)
1.08% higher, strong bullish tone. Index rallies with renewed risk appetite and strong follow-through.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Building Permits (Jul)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/16)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6475. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6491, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6506 and potentially 6539.
If we cannot close above 6443, we could see a move back to test 6427 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6411, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6378.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6509 (-8 or -0.12%)
Slightly weaker, -0.12%. Trend remains fragile, showing limited downside pressure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Thu 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Tue 22:30 – USD Building Permits (Jul)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/16)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6525. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6542, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6558 and potentially 0.6590.
If we cannot close above 0.6493, we could see a move back to test 0.6476 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6460, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6427.
EUR/USD – 1.1707 (+59 or +0.51%)
Mild bullish move, +0.51%. Euro continues higher, trend moderately strong.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jul)
Thu 17:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Mon 25, 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
Tue 22:30 – USD Building Permits (Jul)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/16)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1198. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1227, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1256 and potentially 1.1315.
If we cannot close above 1.1147, we could see a move back to test 1.1118 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1089, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1031.
GBP/USD – 1.3555 (+111 or +0.83%)
0.83% higher. Pound showing solid upward momentum, buyers stepping back in.
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales YoY (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD Building Permits (Jul)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/16)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3599. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3636, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3672 and potentially 1.3744.
If we cannot close above 1.3511, we could see a move back to test 1.3474 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3438, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3366.
USD/JPY – 147.28 (-37 or -0.25%)
Modest drop, -0.25%. Weakening bias, yen strengthens slightly, but trend lacks conviction.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Building Permits (Jul)
Thu 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/16)
Wed 09:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Jul)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 10:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 147.65. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.01, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.37 and potentially 149.09.
If we cannot close above 146.91, we could see a move back to test 146.55 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.19, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.47.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3328 (-65 or -1.92%)
Negative -1.92% sharp drop. Strong downside move, significant pressure after breaking lower.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3,401. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3,410, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3,415 and potentially 3,435.
If we cannot close above 3,384, we could see a move back to test 3,375 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3,370, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3,350.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 119121 (-176 or -0.15%)
Bitcoin holds steady this week, showing only a slight dip and maintaining its broader consolidation within recent trading ranges.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 119,419. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 119,717, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 120,015 and potentially 120,609.
If we cannot close above 118,823, we could see a move back to test 118,525 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 118,227, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 117,633.
