This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8111 (-160 or -1.93%)
The AU200 shows a significant bearish move this week, dropping 160 points from 8271 to 8111.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8131. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8151, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8172 and potentially 8212.
If we cannot close above 8091, we could see a move back to test 8071 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8051, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8011.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19923 (-518 or -2.53%)
The DAX30 experienced a significant bearish move, dropping 518 points, indicating strong downside momentum in this week’s trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 19972. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20022, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 20071 and potentially 20170.
If we cannot close above 19874, we could see a move back to test 19824 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 19775, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 19676.
US
S&P 500 – 5951 (-96 or -1.59%)
The US500 is trending lower, showing a moderate bearish move of 96 points, signalling cautious sentiment in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/21)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5965. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5980, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5994 and potentially 6025.
If we cannot close above 5937, we could see a move back to test 5922 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5908, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5878.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6252 (-114 or -1.79%)
AUDUSD shows a notable bearish trend this week, dropping from 0.6366 to 0.6252, indicating a strong downside move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/21)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6268. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6283, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6298 and potentially 0.6329.
If we cannot close above 0.6236, we could see a move back to test 0.6220 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6205, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6174.
EUR/USD – 1.0431 (-74 or -0.7%)
The EURUSD is trending lower with a moderate decline, signalling continued bearish sentiment as the pair nears key support levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
Fri 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Fri 20:00 – EUR Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/21)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0466. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0481, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0496 and potentially 1.0554.
If we cannot close above 1.0406, we could see a move back to test 1.0381 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0366, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0314.
GBP/USD – 1.2566 (-57 or -0.45%)
The GBPUSD shows a strong bullish trend with a notable 1.2% move higher this week, signaling momentum upwards.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – GBP Current Account (Q3)
Mon 18:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3)
Mon 18:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/21)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2592. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2638, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2674 and potentially 1.2713.
If we cannot close above 1.2540, we could see a move back to test 1.2514 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2480, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2441.
USD/JPY – 156.44 (+295 or +1.92%)
The USDJPY has surged sharply this week, climbing 2.95 points, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:50 – JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 10:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Fri 10:50 – JPY Industrial Production MoM (Nov)
Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)
Wed 02:00 – USD New Home Sales (Nov)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/21)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.07. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.70, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.33 and potentially 163.05.
If we cannot close above 154.81, we could see a move back to test 153.18 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 151.56, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 148.80.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2623 (-25 or -0.94%)
Gold is showing a weak bearish trend with a moderate move down of 25 points this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2631. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2640, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2648 and potentially 2679.
If we cannot close above 2615, we could see a move back to test 2606 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2598, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2584.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 95288 (-9031 or -8.66%)
Bitcoin is experiencing a strong bearish trend, with a significant drop of over 9,000 points this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 95,820. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 96,350, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 96,880 and potentially 97,910.
If we cannot close above 95,757, we could see a move back to test 95,228 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 94,697, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 93,667.
