This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7768 (-150 or -1.89%)
The AU200 has experienced a noticeable decline, dropping 150 points from 7916 to 7766, indicating a weak trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7785. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7805, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7825 and potentially 7864.
If we cannot close above 7747, we could see a move back to test 7727 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7707, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7677.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18672 (+112 or +0.6%)
The DAX has seen a slight upward trend, rising by 112 points from 18561 to 18673, indicating a modest strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Wed 18:00 – EUR Services PMI
Thu 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 19:00 – EUR Employment Change
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18718. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18765, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18811 and potentially 18895.
If we cannot close above 18625, we could see a move back to test 18578 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18532, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18444.
US
S&P 500 – 5300 (+58 or +1.11%)
The US500 has experienced a significant drop, falling 142 points from 5442 to 5300, indicating a strong downward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5313. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5326, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5339 and potentially 5366.
If we cannot close above 5287, we could see a move back to test 5274 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5261, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5235.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6648 (+156 or +2.4%)
The AUDUSD has surged, climbing 156 pips from 0.6490 to 0.6646, indicating a robust upward trend in the chart.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 11:30 – AUD GDP Growth Rate
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade
Mon 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6664. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6682, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6699 and potentially 0.6723.
If we cannot close above 0.6631, we could see a move back to test 0.6613 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6596, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6572.
EUR/USD – 1.0853 (+108 or +1.01%)
The EURUSD has climbed significantly, rising 108 pips from 1.0741 to 1.0849, indicating a strong upward trend in the chart.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Manufacturing PMI
Wed 18:00 – EUR Services PMI
Thu 19:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Fri 19:00 – EUR Employment Change
Mon 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0875. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0901, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0927 and potentially 1.0980.
If we cannot close above 1.0821, we could see a move back to test 1.0795 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0769, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0716.
GBP/USD – 1.2743 (+191 or +1.52%)
The GBPUSD has surged notably, rising 191 pips from 1.2548 to 1.2739, indicating a strong upward trend in the chart.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2775. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2822, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2869 and potentially 1.2961.
If we cannot close above 1.2712, we could see a move back to test 1.2665 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2618, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2516.
USD/JPY – 157.42 (+577 or +3.81%)
The USDJPY chart is showing a strong upward trend with a significant move from 155.83 to 156.78 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD Global Manufacturing PMI
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.81. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.18, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.55 and potentially 159.31.
If we cannot close above 157.03, we could see a move back to test 156.66 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.29, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.17.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2320 (+28 or +1.02%)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2326. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2332, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2338 and potentially 2346.
If we cannot close above 2313, we could see a move back to test 2307 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2301, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2294.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 68448 (-1337 or -1.92%)
Bitcoin is displaying a strong upward trend with a significant move from 66187 to 68753 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 68922. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 69114, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 69306 and potentially 69689.
If we cannot close above 68584, we could see a move back to test 68392 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 68199, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 67815.
