This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8334 (+98 or +1.19%)
The AU200 is trending upwards with a moderate move of 98 points, indicating a steady bullish sentiment this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Jan)
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Fri 07:30 – AUD CFTC Australia Speculative Net Positions
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8355. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8375, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8397 and potentially 8438.
If we cannot close above 8312, we could see a move back to test 8292 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8271, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8230.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 20874 (+622 or +3.07%)
The DE30 has shown a strong upward move this week, rising significantly by 622 points, signaling bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 20926. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20978, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 21030 and potentially 21134.
If we cannot close above 20822, we could see a move back to test 20770 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 20718, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 20614.
US
S&P 500 – 5988 (+169 or +2.9%)
The US500 is trending strongly upward with a notable move, reflecting a significant gain from 5819 to 5988 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 02:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Tue 04:00 – USD Inauguration Day
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6003. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6018, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6033 and potentially 6063.
If we cannot close above 5973, we could see a move back to test 5958 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5943, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5913.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6191 (+48 or +0.78%)
AUDUSD shows a moderate upward trend this week, gaining strength with a steady move from 0.6143 to 0.6191.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Jan)
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Fri 07:30 – AUD CFTC Australia Speculative Net Positions
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 02:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Tue 04:00 – USD Inauguration Day
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6206. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6222, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6237 and potentially 0.6268.
If we cannot close above 0.6176, we could see a move back to test 0.6161 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6146, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6115.
EUR/USD -1.0270 (+29 or +0.28%)
EUR/USD is showing a modest bullish trend, with a slight move from 1.0241 to 1.0270, indicating steady growth.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 02:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Tue 04:00 – USD Inauguration Day
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0294. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0318, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0339 and potentially 1.0384.
If we cannot close above 1.0245, we could see a move back to test 1.0219 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0183, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0148.
GBP/USD – 1.2163 (-37 or -0.3%)
The GBPUSD chart is showing a slight bearish trend with a modest drop of 0.0037 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Tue 18:00 – GBP Claimant Count Change (Dec)
Fri 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 02:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Tue 04:00 – USD Inauguration Day
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2193. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2228, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2254 and potentially 1.2308.
If we cannot close above 1.2138, we could see a move back to test 1.2113 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2087, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2033.
USD/JPY – 156.40 (-136 or -0.86%)
The USDJPY is trending lower with a notable move, showing weakness as it drops from 157.76 to 156.40.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 14:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Thu 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Dec)
Fri 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Sat 02:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Tue 04:00 – USD Inauguration Day
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 156.77. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.14, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.51 and potentially 158.04.
If we cannot close above 156.02, we could see a move back to test 155.74 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.37, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.84.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2700 (+11 or +0.41%)
Gold shows a steady uptrend with a moderate move, increasing from 2689 to 2700, indicating a positive momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2707. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2715, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2723 and potentially 2742.
If we cannot close above 2693, we could see a move back to test 2685 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2677, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2663.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 101448 (+7533 or +8.02%)
Bitcoin is experiencing a strong upward trend with a significant move of over 7,500, indicating strong bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 101,955. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 102,460, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 102,965 and potentially 103,680.
If we cannot close above 101,185, we could see a move back to test 100,680 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 100,175, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 99,470.
