This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8278 (+89 or +1.09%)
AU200 is trending strongly upward, gaining 89 points this week — a solid move showing bullish momentum returning to the index.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May) AUD
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) AUD
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Apr) AUD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8299. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8320, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8340 and potentially 8372.
If we cannot close above 8257, we could see a move back to test 8236 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8215, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8173.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23681 (+664 or +2.88%)
DAX surges with strength, jumping 664 points — a powerful breakout signaling strong bullish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May) EUR
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q1) EUR
Thu 14:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr) EUR
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23740. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23799, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23858 and potentially 23976.
If we cannot close above 23621, we could see a move back to test 23562 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23503, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23385.
US
S&P 500 – 5740 (+96 or +1.7%)
US500 climbs 96 points — a strong bullish push showing renewed momentum and potential for further upside this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) USD
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims (May/10) USD
Fri 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) USD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5754. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5769, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5783 and potentially 5811.
If we cannot close above 5725, we could see a move back to test 5710 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5696, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5668.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6430 (-35 or -0.54%)
AUDUSD edges lower, slipping 35 pips — a modest pullback that suggests weakening sentiment but not yet a major reversal.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May) AUD
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) AUD
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Apr) AUD
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) USD
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims (May/10) USD
Fri 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) USD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6446. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6462, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6478 and potentially 0.6510.
If we cannot close above 0.6414, we could see a move back to test 0.6398 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6382, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6350.
EUR/USD – 1.1240 (-103 or -0.91%)
EURUSD drops 103 pips — a clear bearish move suggesting downside pressure is building with potential for further weakness ahead.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May) EUR
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q1) EUR
Thu 14:30 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Apr) EUR
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) USD
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims (May/10) USD
Fri 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) USD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1268. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1296, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1324 and potentially 1.1380.
If we cannot close above 1.1212, we could see a move back to test 1.1184 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1156, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1100.
GBP/USD – 1.3293 (+10 or +0.08%)
GBPUSD holds steady, inching up 10 pips — a flat, indecisive move showing little directional momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) USD
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims (May/10) USD
Fri 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) USD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3326. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3359, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3392 and potentially 1.3459.
If we cannot close above 1.3259, we could see a move back to test 1.3226 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3193, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3126.
USD/JPY – 145.88 (+176 or +1.22%)
USDJPY jumps 176 pips — a strong bullish move signaling solid demand for USD and potential continuation of the uptrend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) USD
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims (May/10) USD
Fri 00:00 – USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) USD
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 146.25. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 146.61, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.97 and potentially 147.71.
If we cannot close above 145.50, we could see a move back to test 145.14 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 144.78, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 144.04.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3275 (+19 or +0.58%)
Gold edges up 19 points — a modest gain suggesting cautious optimism, but no strong momentum shift yet.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3283. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3291, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3299 and potentially 3316.
If we cannot close above 3266, we could see a move back to test 3258 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3250, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3233.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 104888 (+10775 or +11.45%)
Bitcoin rockets higher, surging 1,775 points — a powerful bullish breakout showing strong momentum and renewed investor confidence.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 105150. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 105412, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 105675 and potentially 106186.
If we cannot close above 104626, we could see a move back to test 104364 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 104101, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 103590.
