This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8265 (+106 or +1.3%)
The AU200 shows a strong upward trend this week, climbing significantly from 8159 to 8265, indicating solid bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Oct)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8286. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8306, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8328 and potentially 8368.
If we cannot close above 8244, we could see a move back to test 8224 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8202, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8161.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19269 (+45 or +0.23%)
The DAX30 is trending slightly upward, showing modest bullish momentum with a small increase from 19224 to 19269 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov)
Thu 21:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q3)
Sat 22:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 19317. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 19365, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19412 and potentially 19471.
If we cannot close above 19221, we could see a move back to test 19173 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 19126, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 19067.
US
S&P 500 – 6008 (+278 or +4.85%)
The US500 shows a strong upward trend with a significant increase from 5730 to 6008, signalling robust bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6023. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6038, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6045 and potentially 6083.
If we cannot close above 5993, we could see a move back to test 5978 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5971, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5929.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6582 (-17 or -0.26%)
The AUDUSD is trending slightly lower, showing a modest bearish move with limited downside momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov)
Tue 11:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Oct)
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6599. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6615, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6630 and potentially 0.6664.
If we cannot close above 0.6566, we could see a move back to test 0.6551 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6535, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6499.
EUR/USD – 1.0712(-164 or -1.51%)
EUR/USD is trending downward with a noticeable drop from last week, showing a strong bearish move in the current trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov)
Thu 21:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q3)
Sat 22:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0730. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0783, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0836 and potentially 1.0940.
If we cannot close above 1.0686, we could see a move back to test 1.0634 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0581, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0487.
GBP/USD – 1.2914 (-53 or -0.41%)
The GBP/USD is showing a moderate bearish move, down 0.5%, indicating weak downside momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Fri 18:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Sep)
Fri 18:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2946. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2989, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3033 and potentially 1.3189.
If we cannot close above 1.2889, we could see a move back to test 1.2864 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2839, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2783.
USD/JPY – 152.90 (+42 or +0.28%)
The USDJPY has shown a moderate bullish move this week, rising from 152.48 to 152.90, indicating positive momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Fri 10:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 153.05. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 153.60, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 154.15 and potentially 155.13.
If we cannot close above 152.35, we could see a move back to test 151.80 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 151.25, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 150.37.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2682 (-53 or -1.94%)
Gold has dropped significantly this week, with a strong bearish trend, moving 53 points lower from last week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2687. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2692, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2697 and potentially 2703.
If we cannot close above 2677, we could see a move back to test 2672 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2667, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2662.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 80339 (+11316 or +16.39%)
Bitcoin shows strong bullish momentum with a significant rally from 69,023 to 80,339, marking a substantial upside move.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 82,345. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 84,351, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 85,358 and potentially 89,179.
If we cannot close above 80,334, we could see a move back to test 78,328 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76,322, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 72,501.
