Market Brief


Can Bitcoin extend its recent breakout as risk appetite improves?

Could upcoming earnings and Fed signals reshape momentum across crypto and equities?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –   9101  (+7 or +0.08%)

The ASX edged higher this week with a +0.08% gain, showing stable price action and mild bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9124. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9147, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9169 and potentially 9215.

If we cannot close above 9078, we could see a move back to test 9055 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9033, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8987.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 26131  (-356 or -1.34%)

The DAX moved lower this week, falling -1.34% and showing clear bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 17:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 26196. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 26262, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26327 and potentially 26458.

If we cannot close above 26066, we could see a move back to test 26000 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25935, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25804.

US

S&P 500 –  7683  (-103 or -1.32%)

The SPX declined this week by -1.32%, showing increased selling pressure and a clear shift toward bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7702. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7721, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7741 and potentially 7779.

If we cannot close above 7664, we could see a move back to test 7645 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7625, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7587.

FOREX

AUD/USD –    0.7174 (+79 or +1.11%)

AUDUSD moved strongly higher this week with a +1.11% gain, showing clear bullish momentum and continued buying strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD) 

Wed 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7192. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7210, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7228 and potentially 0.7264.

If we cannot close above 0.7156, we could see a move back to test 0.7138 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7120, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.7084.

EUR/USD –  1.1682 (+101 or +0.87%)

EURUSD pushed higher this week with a +0.87% gain, maintaining positive momentum and showing continued buying strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:00 – Ifo Business Climate (EUR)

Thu 16:00 – GfK Consumer Confidence (EUR)

Fri 17:55 – Unemployment Rate (EUR) 

Wed 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1711. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1740, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1770 and potentially 1.1828.

If we cannot close above 1.1653, we could see a move back to test 1.1624 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1594, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1536.

GBP/USD –  1.3649 (+96 or +0.71%)

GBPUSD moved higher this week with a +0.71% gain, showing steady bullish momentum and continued strength from buyers.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 20:00 – CBI Distributive Trades (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (GBP) 

Wed 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3683. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3717, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3751 and potentially 1.3820.

If we cannot close above 1.3615, we could see a move back to test 1.3581 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3547, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3478.


USD/JPY –  158.79 (-28 or -0.18%)

USDJPY edged lower this week by -0.18%, showing mild selling pressure while remaining relatively stable overall.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 11:30 – BoJ Himino Speech (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Unemployment Rate (JPY)

Fri 15:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY) 

Wed 22:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (USD)

Wed 22:30 – Core PCE Price Index YoY (USD)

Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.19. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.58, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.98 and potentially 160.77.

If we cannot close above 158.39, we could see a move back to test 158.00 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.60, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.81.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4622  (+228 or +5.19%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +5.19% gain, showing powerful bullish momentum and significant buying strength. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4634. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4645, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4657 and potentially 4680.

If we cannot close above 4610, we could see a move back to test 4599 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4587, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4564.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  77395 (+14342 or +22.75%)

Bitcoin surged this week with a +22.75% gain, showing exceptionally strong bullish momentum and a major increase in buying pressure. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 77588. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 77782, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 77975 and potentially 78362.

If we cannot close above 77202, we could see a move back to test 77008 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 76815, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 76428.

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