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Market Brief


Key Rate Decisions Ahead: What’s Next for Major Economies?

With central banks in the spotlight, will the Fed's stance on interest rates, the BoE's potential policy shift, and the BoJ's decisions drive significant market movements?
How should traders prepare for these critical events?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 7993 (+66 or +0.83%)

The AU200 is trending upwards with a solid move from 7927 to 7993, showing strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jun)

Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2)

Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate YoY (Q2)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8013. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8033, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8053 and potentially 8093.

If we cannot close above 7973, we could see a move back to test 7953 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7933, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7893.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 18220 (-506 or -2.7%)

The DAX30 is trending strongly upwards with a notable move from 18220 to 18503, indicating robust bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jun)

Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2)

Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate YoY (Q2)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18549. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18595, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18640 and potentially 18734.

If we cannot close above 18457, we could see a move back to test 18412 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18367, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18274.

US

S&P 500 – 5532 (-95 or -1.69%)

The US500 is trending downwards with a noticeable decline from 5532 to 5479, indicating a weakening market trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 00:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5492. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5506, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5519 and potentially 5546.

If we cannot close above 5465, we could see a move back to test 5451 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5438, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5411.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6556 (-144 or -2.15%)

The AUD/USD is trending downwards with a significant drop from 0.6700 to 0.6556, showing strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Jun)

Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2)

Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate YoY (Q2)

Wed 00:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6573. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6590, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6607 and potentially 0.6640.

If we cannot close above 0.6540, we could see a move back to test 0.6523 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6507, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6474.

EUR/USD – 1.0853 (-45 or -0.41%)

The EUR/USD is trending slightly downwards from 1.0898 to 1.0853, showing a modest decline in the market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 18:00 – EUR Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Tue 15:30 – EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)

Tue 15:30 – EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)

Wed 00:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0880. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0903, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0926 and potentially 1.0978.

If we cannot close above 1.0828, we could see a move back to test 1.0805 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0782, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0729.

GBP/USD – 1.2869 (-65 or -0.5%)

The GBP/USD is trending downwards with a notable decline from 1.2934 to 1.2869, indicating strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 21:00 – GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision

Thu 21:00 – GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report

Thu 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Wed 00:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2882. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2918, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2954 and potentially 1.2992.

If we cannot close above 1.2845, we could see a move back to test 1.2819 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2792, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2744.

USD/JPY – 154.18 (-311 or -1.98%)

The USD/JPY is sharply declining from 157.29 to 154.18, showing significant bearish momentum and a strong downtrend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 14:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Wed 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Jul)

Wed 00:00 – USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154.39. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 154.77, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 155.16 and potentially 155.93.

If we cannot close above 153.98, we could see a move back to test 153.60 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 153.21, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 152.43.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 2395 (-15 or -0.62%)

Gold is trending downwards from 2410 to 2395, indicating a strong bearish trend with a significant move.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2400. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2412, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2424 and potentially 2450.

If we cannot close above 2391, we could see a move back to test 2388 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2380, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2365.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 68045 (+153 or +0.23%)

Bitcoin is trending upwards from 67,892 to 68,045, showing a strong bullish move with increasing momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 68,181. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 68,551, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 68,921 and potentially 69,406.

If we cannot close above 68,045, we could see a move back to test 67,794 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 67,424, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 66,560.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.