This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8251 (-14 or -0.17%)
The AU200 shows a weak bearish trend this week, with a small decline of 14 points from 8265 to 8251.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8272. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8272, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8285 and potentially 8293.
If we cannot close above 8230, we could see a move back to test 8230 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8215, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8201.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19238 (-31 or -0.16%)
The DAX30 shows a weak bearish trend this week, with a slight decline of 31 points from 19,269 to 19,238.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR CPI (Oct)
Fri 19:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Nov)
Fri 19:30 – EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 19286. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 19334, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19381 and potentially 19479.
If we cannot close above 19190, we could see a move back to test 19142 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 19095, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18997.
US
S&P 500 – 5876 (-132 or -2.2%)
The US500 is trending lower with a significant move, dropping 132 points this week, signalling notable bearish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/16)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5890. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5905, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5919 and potentially 5949.
If we cannot close above 5862, we could see a move back to test 5847 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5833, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5803.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6461 (-121 or -1.84%)
AUDUSD is trending lower with a notable decline, signalling a significant bearish move as the price dropped by 121 pips.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Fri 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Nov)
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/16)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6489. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6512, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6536 and potentially 0.6584.
If we cannot close above 0.6437, we could see a move back to test 0.6402 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6380, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6332.
EUR/USD – 1.0536(-176 or -1.64%)
The EURUSD is in a strong downtrend, dropping significantly from 1.0712 to 1.0536, signalling notable bearish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov)
Thu 21:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q3)
Sat 22:15 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Thu 00:30 – USD CPI (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Oct)
Fri 07:00 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0564. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0599, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0621 and potentially 1.0685.
If we cannot close above 1.0509, we could see a move back to test 1.0484 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0453, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0401.
GBP/USD – 1.2618 (-296 or -2.29%)
The GBPUSD chart shows a significant bearish move, dropping 0.03 this week, indicating a strong downward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
Fri 18:00 – GBP Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Oct)
Fri 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/16)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2654. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2718, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2781 and potentially 1.2902.
If we cannot close above 1.2563, we could see a move back to test 1.2510 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2447, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2306.
USD/JPY – 154.67 (+177 or +1.16%)
The USDJPY is showing strong upward momentum, with a notable rise of 1.77 points this week, indicating strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD Building Permits (Oct)
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/16)
Sat 01:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
Wed 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade (Oct)
Fri 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
Fri 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate MoM (Oct)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.79. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.90, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.91 and potentially 162.61.
If we cannot close above 153.54, we could see a move back to test 152.39 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 150.38, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 148.83.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2570 (-112 or -4.18%)
Gold is showing a strong bearish trend with a significant drop of 112 points, signaling substantial downward pressure.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2577. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2584, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2592 and potentially 2602.
If we cannot close above 2562, we could see a move back to test 2555 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2547, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2532.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 89518 (+9179 or +11.43%)
Bitcoin is showing strong upside momentum with a significant move of over 9,000 points, signalling a bullish trend.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 90,030. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 91,541, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 92,878 and potentially 96,164.
If we cannot close above 89,506, we could see a move back to test 88,995 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 87,658, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 84,372.
