This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7636 (+1 or +0.01%)
The ASX is stalling at the all time, will the markets find the strength needed to take it to the next level?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Consumer confidence
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7838. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7943, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8048 and potentially 8256.
If we cannot close above 7434, we could see a move back to test 7229 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7023, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6832.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16961(+21 or +0.12%)
The DAX is sitting in uncharted territory.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:30 – EUR ECB Speech
Wed 21:00 – EUR Employment Change
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17308. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17655, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18003 and potentially 18798.
If we cannot close above 16514, we could see a move back to test 16167 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15819, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15124.
US
S&P 500 – 5027 (+70 or +1.41%)
The SPX500 has made all time highs above the $5,000 level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5154. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5303, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5453 and potentially 6079.
If we cannot close above 4910, we could see a move back to test 4761 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4611, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4165.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6524(+19 or +0.29%)
AUDUSD has found support at 0.648, will we see a breakout to upside or a continuation of momentum to the downside? Fundamentals this week could be the decider.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Consumer confidence
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wed 00:30 – USD CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.654. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.657, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.660 and potentially 0.667.
If we cannot close above 0.650, we could see a move back to test 0.646 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.641, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.635.
EUR/USD – 1.0794 (+19 or +0.18%)
EURUSD is currently moving down following the current USD trends.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:30 – EUR ECB Speech
Wed 21:00 – EUR Employment Change
Wed 00:30 – USD CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0825. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.087, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.093 and potentially 1.106.
If we cannot close above 1.0766, we could see a move back to test 1.0732 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.068, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.057.
GBP/USD – 1.2634 (+19 or +0.15%)
GBPUSD has formed an interesting flat resistance area at 1.280. Will this level hold the line?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate
Thur 18:00 – GBP GDP Growth
Fri 18:00 – GBP Retail Sales
Wed 00:30 – USD CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.266. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.272, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.281 and potentially 1.297.
If we cannot close above 1.260, we could see a move back to test 1.255 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.247, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.234.
USD/JPY – 149.17 (+72 or +0.49%)
USDJPY is moving higher each week, will the momentum break into multi year highs?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 10:50 – JPY Growth Rate
Wed 00:30 – USD CPI
Wed 00:30 – USD Core Inflation Rate
Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.51. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 149.84, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.17 and potentially 150.86.
If we cannot close above 148.83, we could see a move back to test 148.50 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.16, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.38.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2024 (-15 or -0.74%)
Gold is moving sideways with a slight decline into the 2,000 support level.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2079. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2134, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2189 and potentially 2299.
If we cannot close above 1978, we could see a move back to test 1933 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1888, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1778.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 48200 (+5649 or +13.28%)
BTCUSD is up 13% this week, will the momentum continue to all time highs?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 49323. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 50446, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 51569 and potentially 54215.
If we cannot close above 47077, we could see a move back to test 45854 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 44531, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 41885.
