This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7260 (+40 or +0.55%)
The ASX regained its early week losses to end the week flat and our levels remain the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7400. Should this occur, a move above 7450 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7500 and 7555.
Failure to close above 7400 means a potential move into 7200. 7135 is the next support level down if 7215 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7030.
EUROPE
DAX (40) – 16280 (+295 or +1.85%)
The DAX moved higher above its range creating a higher high.
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 16380. Should this occur, then 16500 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16550 and 16600 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 16380, we will look for a move into support at 16200. A strong break and close below this handle and 15800 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15600 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4400 (+100 or +2.33%)
The SPX ripped higher this past week as it outperforms its global peers again.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – US Building Permits
Thurs 00:00 – Fed Powell Speech
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4300. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4440. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4480 and 4490.
If we cannot hold above 4300, we could see this market move down into 4250. A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4200. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4150.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6872 (+142 or +2.11%)
The Aussie Dollar bulls hold this pair up for now…
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes
Tues 22:30 – US Building Permits
Thurs 00:00 – Fed Powell Speech
Fri 09:00 – Bank Services PMI
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6806. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6880. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6900. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6990 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6800, we could see a move down to 0.6700. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6665, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6600.
EUR/USD – 1.0935 (+191 or +1.78%)
The Euro has seen an increase in bullish momentum.
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0983. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.0990. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1000 and 1.1050.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0930, we will see a move into 1.0900. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0850, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0800.
GBP/USD – 1.2820 (+105 or +0.85%)
The Pound remains one of the strongest of the currencies trading against the USD right now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2700 before a break higher into 1.2900. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2910. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.3000 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2700, we will look for a move down to 1.2600. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2550 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2400.
USD/JPY – 141.80 (+246 or +1.77%)
The Dollar Yen’s upwards momentum has broken through a key resistance level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 141.00. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 142.30, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 143.90 and potentially 144.00.
If we cannot close above 141.00, we could see a move back to test 140.00 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 139.00, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 137.00.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1955 (+2 or +0.1%)
Gold closed almost completely flat.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 00:00 – Fed Powell Speech
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1958. Should this occur we could see a move into 1965; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1967. If momentum is strong, then 1975 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1958, we can see a move down to 1950. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1940; and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1930.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 26440 (+320 or +1.23%)
BTC is creating a classic bullish flag formation, will the strength breakout or fizzle out?.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 29000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 30000 before retesting 31000 . If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 31500.
Failure to close above 29000 could see a move into 25000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 24000. A close below this level and 23000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that with an open gap.
