This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7664 (-60 or -0.78%)
The AU200 chart is showing a slight decline, with a small move from 7724 to 7664 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7846. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7982, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8117 and potentially 8608.
If we cannot close above 7482, we could see a move back to test 7311 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7140, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6670.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18049 (+216 or +1.21%)
The DAX chart is trending upwards with a notable increase from 17833 to 18049 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 21:00 – EUR CPI
Tue 19:30 – EUR Guindos Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18499. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18974, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19449 and potentially 20686.
If we cannot close above 17624, we could see a move back to test 17149 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 16674, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15524.
US
S&P 500 – 5129 (-7 or -0.14%)
The US500 chart shows a slight downtrend with a small move of 7 points from 5136 to 5129 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 05:00 – USD FED Interest Rate Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD FED Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5243. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5372, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5501 and potentially 6161.
If we cannot close above 5015, we could see a move back to test 4898 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4770, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4512.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6560 (-51 or -0.77%)
The AUDUSD chart is showing a moderate downtrend with a move of 51 pips from 0.6611 to 0.6560 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 05:00 – USD FED Interest Rate Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD FED Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6575. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6592, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6609 and potentially 0.6630.
If we cannot close above 0.6545, we could see a move back to test 0.6518 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6493, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6460.
EUR/USD – 1.0885 (-44 or -0.4%)
The EURUSD chart is showing a moderate downtrend with a move of 44 pips from 1.0929 to 1.0885 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 21:00 – EUR CPI
Tue 19:30 – EUR Guindos Speech
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 05:00 – USD FED Interest Rate Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD FED Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0909. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0932, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0957 and potentially 1.1011.
If we cannot close above 1.0861, we could see a move back to test 1.0838 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0813, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0760.
GBP/USD – 1.2732 (-84 or -0.66%)
The GBPUSD chart is showing a moderate downtrend with a move of 84 pips from 1.2816 to 1.2732 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 05:00 – USD FED Interest Rate Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD FED Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2764. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2798, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2830 and potentially 1.2890.
If we cannot close above 1.2701, we could see a move back to test 1.2668 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2624, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2568.
USD/JPY – 149.01 (+226 or +1.54%)
The USDJPY chart is showing a strong uptrend with a significant move of 225 points from 146.75 to 149.01 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 05:00 – USD FED Interest Rate Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD FED Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.38. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 149.74, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.10 and potentially 150.88.
If we cannot close above 148.63, we could see a move back to test 148.26 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 147.64, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.01.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2155 (-27 or -1.24%)
The GOLD chart is showing a moderate downtrend with a move of 27 points from 2182 to 2155 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2160. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2166, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2172 and potentially 2181.
If we cannot close above 2150, we could see a move back to test 2144 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2138, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2126.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 68291 (-3864 or -5.36%)
The Bitcoin chart is showing a significant downtrend with a substantial move of 3864 points from 72155 to 68291 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 68408. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 68625, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 68842 and potentially 69438.
If we cannot close above 68154, we could see a move back to test 67937 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 67720, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 67264.
