Market Brief


Euro paused as markets await fresh US labour and sentiment readings

Will the upcoming US macro numbers strengthen the dollar’s advantage and limit the euro’s ability to break higher? And if momentum builds, could EUR/USD be setting up for a larger directional move in the days ahead?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8791 (-74 or -0.83%)

The ASX drifted lower this week, posting a −0.83% decline and showing continued bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
Thu 00:30 – AUD Employment Change (Oct)
Thu 00:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8813. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8835, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8858 and potentially 8901.

If we cannot close above -8791, we could see a move back to test -8813 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into -8835, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into -8879.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 23758 (-214 or -0.89%)

The DAX slipped again this week, falling −0.89% and maintaining a short-term bearish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov)
Thu 10:00 – EUR Employment Change QoQ (Q3)
Thu 10:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q3)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23780. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23802, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23825 and potentially 23868.

If we cannot close above 23736, we could see a move back to test 23714 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23691, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23648.

US

S&P 500 -6734 (-105 or -1.54%)

The SPX extended its decline this week, dropping −1.54% and showing continued downside pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 13:30 – USD CPI / Core CPI / Inflation Data Cluster (Oct)
Fri 13:30 – USD Retail Sales Data Cluster (Sep/Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6756. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6778, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6801 and potentially 6844.

If we cannot close above 6712, we could see a move back to test 6690 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6667, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6624.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6494 (-46 or -0.7%)
AUDUSD edged lower this week, losing −0.7% and holding within a mild bearish trend.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:30 – AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
Thu 00:30 – AUD Employment Change (Oct)
Thu 00:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Oct)
Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 13:30 – USD CPI / Core CPI / Inflation Data Cluster (Oct)
Fri 13:30 – USD Retail Sales Data Cluster (Sep/Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6516. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6538, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6561 and potentially 6604.

If we cannot close above 6472, we could see a move back to test 6450 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6427, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6384.

EUR/USD – 1.11555 (+22 or +0.19%)

EURUSD posted a modest +0.19% gain this week, showing a slight bullish tilt.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov)

Thu 10:00 – EUR Employment Change QoQ (Q3)

Thu 10:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q3)

Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 13:30 – USD CPI / Core CPI / Inflation Data Cluster (Oct)

Fri 13:30 – USD Retail Sales Data Cluster (Sep/Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 11577. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 11599, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 11622 and potentially 11665.

If we cannot close above 11533, we could see a move back to test 11511 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 11488, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 11445.

GBP/USD – 1.13150 (+10 or +0.08%)

GBPUSD inched higher this week with a small +0.08% rise, maintaining mild upward momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 00:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct)

Tue 07:00 – GBP Employment Change (Sep)

Tue 07:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 13:30 – USD CPI / Core CPI / Inflation Data Cluster (Oct)

Fri 13:30 – USD Retail Sales Data Cluster (Sep/Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 13172. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 13194, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 13217 and potentially 13260.

If we cannot close above 13128, we could see a move back to test 13106 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 13083, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13040.


USD/JPY – 153.69 (-35 or -0.23%)

USDJPY softened slightly this week, slipping −0.23% but remaining broadly range-bound.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 13:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 13:30 – USD CPI / Core CPI / Inflation Data Cluster (Oct)

Fri 13:30 – USD Retail Sales Data Cluster (Sep/Oct)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 15391. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 15413, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 15436 and potentially 15479.

If we cannot close above 15347, we could see a move back to test 15325 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15302, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15259.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4002 (+1 or +0.02% )

Gold held flat this week with a tiny +0.02% gain, showing indecision and consolidation.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4024. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4046, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4069 and potentially 4112.


If we cannot close above 3980, we could see a move back to test 3958 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3935, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3892.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 114500 (+4732 or +4.31%)

BTC surged strongly this week, gaining +4.31% and showing robust bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 114786. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 115073, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 115359 and potentially 115931.

If we cannot close above 114214, we could see a move back to test 113927 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 113641, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 113069.

DISCLAIMER

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