Market Brief


Can major currencies continue gaining against the dollar?

Or will upcoming US data reverse the latest move?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8963  (+126 or +1.43%)

The ASX moved higher this week, gaining +1.43% and showing continued bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – Ai Group Industry Index (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8985. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9008, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9030 and potentially 9075.

If we cannot close above 8941, we could see a move back to test 8918 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8896, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8851.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25845 (+660 or +2.62%)

The DAX surged this week, posting a strong +2.62% gain and showing clear bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – Unemployment Change (EUR)

Tue 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Fri 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25910. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25974, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 26039 and potentially 26168.

If we cannot close above 25780, we could see a move back to test 25716 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25651, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 25522.

US

S&P 500 –  7524 (+70 or +0.94%)

The SPX advanced this week, gaining +0.94% and maintaining steady bullish momentum from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7543. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7562, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7580 and potentially 7618.

If we cannot close above 7505, we could see a move back to test 7486 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7468, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7430.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7040 (+43 or +0.61%)

AUDUSD moved higher this week, gaining +0.61% and maintaining steady bullish momentum from last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – Ai Group Industry Index (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Building Permits MoM (AUD) 

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7058. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7075, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7093 and potentially 0.7128.

If we cannot close above 0.7022, we could see a move back to test 0.7005 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6987, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6952.

EUR/USD – 1.1541 (+135 or +1.18%)

EURUSD climbed this week, posting +1.18% and showing solid bullish momentum as buyers remained in control.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 17:00 – Unemployment Change (EUR)

Tue 18:00 – Retail Sales MoM (EUR)

Fri 16:00 – Balance of Trade (EUR) 

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1570. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1599, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1628 and potentially 1.1685.

If we cannot close above 1.1512, we could see a move back to test 1.1483 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1454, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1397.

GBP/USD – 1.3485 (+130 or +0.97%)

GBPUSD strengthened this week, gaining +0.97% and showing continued bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index YoY (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Halifax House Price Index MoM (GBP)

Fri 19:00 – BBA Mortgage Rate (GBP) 

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3519. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3552, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3586 and potentially 1.3654.

If we cannot close above 1.3451, we could see a move back to test 1.3418 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3384, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3316.


USD/JPY – 156.12 (-744 or -4.55%)

USDJPY fell sharply this week, declining -4.55% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 09:50 – BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Household Spending YoY (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Household Spending MoM (JPY) 

Thu 00:00 – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 156.51. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.90, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.29 and potentially 158.07.

If we cannot close above 155.73, we could see a move back to test 155.34 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.95, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.17.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4056 (-45 or -1.1%)

Gold moved lower this week, falling -1.10% and showing moderate bearish pressure compared with last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4066. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4076, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4086 and potentially 4107.

If we cannot close above 4046, we could see a move back to test 4036 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4026, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4005.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  63189 (-1758 or -2.71%)

BTC declined this week, falling -2.71% and showing renewed bearish momentum as sellers remained firmly in control.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63347. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63505, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 63663 and potentially 63979.

If we cannot close above 63031, we could see a move back to test 62873 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 62715, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62399.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.