This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 9046 (+133 or +1.49%)
The price of the ASX last week was 8913 and this week it is 9046. ASX surged strongly with a notable gain, showing bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)
Mon Sep 01 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see ASX close above 9068. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9091, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9113 and potentially 9159.
If we cannot close above 9023, we could see a move back to test 9000 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8978, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8932.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24339 (-73 or -0.3%)
The price of the DAX last week was 24412 and this week it is 24339. DAX slipped slightly, showing weak bearish sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Aug)
For a move to the upside, we must now see DAX close above 24399. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24460, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24521 and potentially 24643.
If we cannot close above 24278, we could see a move back to test 24217 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24156, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24034.
US
S&P 500 – 6464 (+5 or +0.08%)
The price of the SPX last week was 6459 and this week it is 6464. SPX edged higher with modest gains, showing mild bullish sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/23)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see SPX close above 6480. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6496, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6512 and potentially 6544.
If we cannot close above 6448, we could see a move back to test 6432 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6416, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6383.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6481 (-28 or -0.43%)
The price of the AUDUSD last week was 0.6509 and this week it is 0.6481. AUDUSD slipped slightly, showing weak bearish sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Wed 11:30 – AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)
Mon Sep 01 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Tue 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/23)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see AUDUSD close above 0.6497. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6513, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6528 and potentially 0.6562.
If we cannot close above 0.6465, we could see a move back to test 0.6449 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6433, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6400.
EUR/USD – 1.1696 (-11 or -0.09%)
The price of the EURUSD last week was 1.1707 and this week it is 1.1696. EURUSD slipped slightly, showing weak bearish sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – EUR Ifo Business Climate (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – EUR Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Tue 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/23)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see EURUSD close above 1.1725. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1754, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1782 and potentially 1.1842.
If we cannot close above 1.1667, we could see a move back to test 1.1638 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1609, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1549.
GBP/USD – 1.3497 (-58 or -0.43%)
The price of the GBPUSD last week was 1.3555 and this week it is 1.3497. GBPUSD slipped slightly, showing weak bearish sentiment.
Wed 20:00 – GBP CBI Distributive Trades (Aug)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Aug)
Mon Sep 01 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Tue 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/23)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see GBPUSD close above 1.3531. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3564, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3597 and potentially 1.3665.
If we cannot close above 1.3463, we could see a move back to test 1.3430 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3397, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3330.
USD/JPY – 147.47 (+19 or +0.13%)
The price of the USDJPY last week was 147.28 and this week it is 147.47. USDJPY edged higher with modest gains, showing mild bullish sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Fri 09:50 – JPY Industrial Production MoM (Jul)
Fri 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Aug)
Tue 00:00 – USD New Home Sales (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/23)
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see USDJPY close above 147.83. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.20, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.56 and potentially 149.32.
If we cannot close above 147.10, we could see a move back to test 146.73 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.36, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.61.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3365 (+37 or +1.11%)
The price of the GOLD last week was 3328 and this week it is 3365. GOLD surged strongly with a notable gain, showing bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see GOLD close above 3373. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3381, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3389 and potentially 3407.
If we cannot close above 3356, we could see a move back to test 3348 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3340, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3323.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 112856 (-4574 or -3.9%)
The price of the BTC last week was 117430 and this week it is 112856. BTC dropped sharply, signaling strong bearish momentum in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see BTC close above 113138. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 113420, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 113703 and potentially 114267.
If we cannot close above 112573, we could see a move back to test 112291 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 112009, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 111445.
