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Market Brief


USD weakens amid CPI data miss.

How will the recent USD weakness impact forex trading strategies and what factors are driving this trend?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 7856 (+105 or +1.35%)

The AU200 chart is trending upwards with a notable move from 7751 to 7856 this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence

Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Thu 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8056. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8256, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8556 and potentially 9556.

If we cannot close above 7656, we could see a move back to test 7456 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7156, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6856.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 18763 (-37 or -0.2%)

The DAX chart is trending slightly downwards with a modest move from 18800 to 18763 this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 18:00 – EUR PMI

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18711. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18637, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18564 and potentially 18420.

If we cannot close above 18715, we could see a move back to test 18689 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18662, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18616.

US

S&P 500 – 5316 (+87 or +1.66%)

The US500 chart is trending upwards with a significant move from 5229 to 5316 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 00:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales

Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5330. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5363, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5399 and potentially 5460.

If we cannot close above 5303, we could see a move back to test 5270 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5230, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5169.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6699 (+105 or +1.59%)

The AUDUSD chart is trending upwards with a substantial move from 0.6594 to 0.6699 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence

Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Thu 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI

Thu 00:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales

Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6716. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6748, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6781 and potentially 0.6762.

If we cannot close above 0.6682, we could see a move back to test 0.6650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6624, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6610.

EUR/USD – 1.0871 (+101 or +0.94%)

The EURUSD chart is trending upwards with a notable move from 1.0770 to 1.0871 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 18:00 – EUR PMI

Thu 00:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales

Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0898. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0942, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0979 and potentially 1.1086.

If we cannot close above 1.0845, we could see a move back to test 1.0801 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0765, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0644.

GBP/USD – 1.2704 (+178 or +1.42%)

The GBPUSD chart is trending upwards with a significant move from 1.2526 to 1.2704 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 00:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales

Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2736. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2768, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2798 and potentially 1.2855.

If we cannot close above 1.2673, we could see a move back to test 1.2641 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2610, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2560.

USD/JPY – 155.83 (+4 or +0.03%)

The USDJPY chart is trending slightly upwards with a minor move from 155.79 to 155.83 this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate

Thu 00:00 – USD FOMC Minutes

Thu 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales

Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.8459. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 155.8672, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 155.8896 and potentially 155.9279.

If we cannot close above 155.8131, we could see a move back to test 155.7918 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.7694, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.7279.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 2417 (+63 or +2.68%)

The price of gold is trending downwards with a significant move from 2417 to 2354 this week, indicating strong bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2423. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2430, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2437 and potentially 2455.

If we cannot close above 2411, we could see a move back to test 2404 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2397, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2389.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 66187 (+5247 or +8.61%)

The price of Bitcoin is trending upwards with a significant move from 60940 to 66187 this week, showing strong bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 66347. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 66606, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 66849 and potentially 67582.

If we cannot close above 66011, we could see a move back to test 65752 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 65409, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64874.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.