Market Brief


Is growing geopolitical uncertainty beginning to reshape capital flows across global markets?

Could this volatility trigger larger moves in commodities, FX and equity indices?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8567 (-611 or -6.66%)

The ASX fell sharply this week, dropping -6.66% from last week and showing strong bearish momentum in the market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8588. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8610, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8631 and potentially 8674.

If we cannot close above 8546, we could see a move back to test 8524 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8503, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8460.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –23392 (-1779 or -7.07%)

The DAX declined heavily this week, losing -7.07% and signalling strong bearish pressure compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 21:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23450. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23509, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23567 and potentially 23684.

If we cannot close above 23334, we could see a move back to test 23275 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23217, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23100.

US

S&P 500 –  6638 (-224 or -3.26%)

The SPX moved lower this week with a -3.26% decline, showing moderate bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6655. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6671, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6688 and potentially 6721.

If we cannot close above 6621, we could see a move back to test 6605 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6588, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6555.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6996 (-56 or -0.79%)

AUDUSD edged slightly lower this week, falling -0.79% and showing mild bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7013. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7031, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7048 and potentially 0.7083.

If we cannot close above 0.6979, we could see a move back to test 0.6961 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6944, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6909.

EUR/USD – 1.1430 (-335 or -2.85%)

EURUSD weakened this week, dropping -2.85% and showing increasing bearish momentum compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 21:00 – CPI (EUR)

Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1459. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1487, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1516 and potentially 1.1573.

If we cannot close above 1.1401, we could see a move back to test 1.1373 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1344, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1287.

GBP/USD – 1.3242 (-171 or -1.27%)

GBPUSD moved lower this week, falling -1.27% and showing modest bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:30 – Spring Economic Statement (GBP)

Thu 20:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)

Tue 11:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3275. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3308, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3341 and potentially 1.3408.

If we cannot close above 1.3209, we could see a move back to test 1.3176 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3143, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3076.


USD/JPY – 159.56 (+339 or +2.17%)

USDJPY rallied strongly this week, gaining +2.17% and showing clear bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 10:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Thu 10:50 – Machinery Orders YoY (JPY)

Thu 14:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 159.96. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.36, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.76 and potentially 161.55.

If we cannot close above 159.16, we could see a move back to test 158.76 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.36, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.57.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4983 (-295 or -5.59%)

Gold declined sharply this week, falling -5.59% and showing strong bearish momentum compared with last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4995. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5008, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5020 and potentially 5045.

If we cannot close above 4971, we could see a move back to test 4958 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4946, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4921.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 72624 (+7390 or +11.33%)

Bitcoin surged strongly this week, jumping +11.33% and showing powerful bullish momentum compared to last week.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 72806. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 72987, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 73169 and potentially 73532.

If we cannot close above 72442, we could see a move back to test 72261 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 72079, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 71716.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.