This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8689 (+13 or +0.15%)
Minimal movement this week, showing flat momentum. The market is stable but lacks directional conviction.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q2)
Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q2)
Fri 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8711. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8732, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8754 and potentially 8797.
If we cannot close above 8667, we could see a move back to test 8646 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8624, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8581.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24394 (+168 or +0.69%)
Steady bullish trend continues with a moderate 0.69% gain. Momentum building but still controlled.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)
Fri 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jul)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24455. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24614, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24778 and potentially 25198.
If we cannot close above 24333, we could see a move back to test 24174 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24010, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23590.
US
S&P 500 – 6414 (+110 or +1.74%)
Strong move this week! Up 1.74% — clear bullish momentum with potential continuation if sentiment holds.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6429. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6446, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6462 and potentially 6494.
If we cannot close above 6398, we could see a move back to test 6381 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6365, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6333.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6573 (+68 or +1.05%)
AUD/USD rallied over 1% — strong upside shift. Trend strengthening with room for further gains.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI (Q2)
Wed 11:30 – AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q2)
Fri 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Wed 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6599. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6606, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6623 and potentially 0.6655.
If we cannot close above 0.6547, we could see a move back to test 0.6540 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6523, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6480.
EUR/USD – 1.11760 (+139 or +1.2%)
Euro rises 1.2% against the dollar — impressive weekly move showing growing eurozone support.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)
Fri 19:00 – EUR CPI (Jul)
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Wed 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1790. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1820, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1849 and potentially 1.1907.
If we cannot close above 1.1730, we could see a move back to test 1.1701 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1671, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1613.
GBP/USD – 1.3441 (+28 or +0.21%)
Small uptick in GBP/USD with modest buying interest. Still range-bound overall.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – GBP Mortgage Lending (Jun)
Fri 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Mon 20:00 – GBP CBI Distributive Trades (Jul)
Wed 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3474. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3508, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3542 and potentially 1.3610.
If we cannot close above 1.3408, we could see a move back to test 1.3374 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3340, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3272.
USD/JPY – 147.81 (-65 or -0.44%)
USD/JPY slips 0.44% — Yen gaining ground as risk sentiment shifts. Bearish pressure building.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 13:00 – JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Thu 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Fri 09:30 – JPY Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Wed 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 14818. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 14855, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 14892 and potentially 14967.
If we cannot close above 14744, we could see a move back to test 14707 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 14670, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 14595.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3331 (-25 or -0.74%)
Gold drops 0.74% — sellers in control this week. Risk appetite remains firm.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3339. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3347, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3355 and potentially 3372.
If we cannot close above 3323, we could see a move back to test 3315 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3307, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3290.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 119297 (+1491 or +1.27%)
Bitcoin adds 1.27% this week — bullish tone returning. Uptrend could accelerate if key resistance levels break.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 119595. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 119893, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 120190 and potentially 120987.
If we cannot close above 118998, we could see a move back to test 118700 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 118403, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 117606.
