Market Brief


Can softer bond yields and continued US dollar weakness provide enough support to keep gold moving higher?

Is the latest rebound strong enough to reverse last week’s sharp decline and restore broader bullish momentum?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  8929 (+212 or +2.43%)

The ASX climbed strongly this week, gaining +2.43% and maintaining clear bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Jones Speech (AUD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8951. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8974, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8996 and potentially 9041.

If we cannot close above 8907, we could see a move back to test 8884 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8862, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8817.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25038 (-70 or -0.28%)

The DAX edged lower this week, declining -0.28% and showing mild bearish pressure with largely subdued momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25101. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25163, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25226 and potentially 25351.

If we cannot close above 24975, we could see a move back to test 24913 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24850, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24725.

US

S&P 500 – 7504 (-99 or -1.3%)

The SPX moved lower this week, falling -1.30% and displaying increased bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7523. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7542, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7560 and potentially 7598.

If we cannot close above 7485, we could see a move back to test 7466 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7448, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7410.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7069 (-111 or -1.55%)

AUDUSD declined this week, losing -1.55% and showing clear bearish momentum as sellers maintained control of the market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD)

Tue 15:30 – RBA Press Conference (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Jones Speech (AUD) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7087. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7104, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7122 and potentially 0.7157.

If we cannot close above 0.7051, we could see a move back to test 0.7034 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.7016, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6981.

EUR/USD – 1.1596 (-47 or -0.4%)

EURUSD moved slightly lower this week, declining -0.4% and showing moderate bearish pressure compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Mon 19:00 – Industrial Production MoM (EUR)

Tue 19:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EUR)

Wed 19:00 – CPI (EUR) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1625. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1654, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1683 and potentially 1.1741.

If we cannot close above 1.1567, we could see a move back to test 1.1538 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1509, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1451.

GBP/USD – 1.3441 (-12 or -0.09%)

GBPUSD remained relatively stable this week, slipping -0.09% and showing limited bearish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 16:00 – Inflation Rate YoY (GBP)

Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)

Fri 16:00 – Retail Sales MoM (GBP) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3475. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3508, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3542 and potentially 1.3609.

If we cannot close above 1.3407, we could see a move back to test 1.3374 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3340, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3273.


USD/JPY – 160.12 (+66 or +0.41%)

USDJPY pushed higher this week, gaining +0.41% and maintaining steady bullish momentum compared with last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 13:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)

Wed 09:50 – Balance of Trade (JPY)

Fri 09:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (JPY) 

Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections (USD)

Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD) 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 160.52. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 160.92, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.32 and potentially 162.12.

If we cannot close above 159.72, we could see a move back to test 159.32 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 158.92, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 158.12.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4294  (-221 or -4.89%)

Gold dropped sharply this week, losing -4.89% and showing strong bearish momentum as selling pressure intensified. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4305. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4315, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4326 and potentially 4348.

If we cannot close above 4283, we could see a move back to test 4273 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4262, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4240.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –   65339 (-8390 or -11.38%)

Bitcoin plunged this week, falling -11.38% and showing powerful bearish momentum as sellers dominated the market. 

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65502. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65666, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65829 and potentially 66156.

If we cannot close above 65176, we could see a move back to test 65012 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64849, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64522.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.