This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6786 (-42 or -0.62%)
The ASX has continued its downtrend following the recent global market sentiment.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – AUD PMI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of trade
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 6775. Should this occur, a move above 6854 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 6991 and 7093.
Failure to close above 6775 means a potential move into 6717. 6646 is the next support level down if 6537 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 6460.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 14673 (-125 or -0.84%)
The DAX is following the current trends of the global markets moving lower.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:30 – EUR GDP
Tue 00:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Tue 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 14672. Should this occur, then 14974 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 15087 and 15243 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 14672, we will look for a move into support at 14457. A strong break and close below this handle and 14116 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 14000 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4137 (-95 or -2.24%)
The SPX500 has dropped over 2% two weeks in a row.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 05:00 – USD Interest Rates Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Thur 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 23:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4137. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4144. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4245 and 4339.
If we cannot hold above 4137, we could see this market move down into 4118 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4005. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 3919.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6355 (+47 or +0.75%)
The AUDUSD has climbed 0.75% this week ahead of a busy USDollar news week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:00 – AUD PMI
Thur 11:30 – AUD Balance of trade
Fri 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Thur 05:00 – USD Interest Rates Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Thur 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 23:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6355. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6377. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6426. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6457could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6355 we could see a move down to 0.6327. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6274 however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6214.
EUR/USD – 1.0561 (-15 or -0.14%)
With NFP this week the EURUSD is sitting in a vulnerable spot.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:30 – EUR GDP
Tue 00:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Tue 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Thur 05:00 – USD Interest Rates Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Thur 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 23:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0576. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.0634. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.0754 and 1.0773.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0576, we will see a move into 1.0411. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0369, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0299.
GBP/USD – 1.2115 (-2 or -0.02%)
GBPUSD has closed flat ahead of the USDollar Rate decision this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 05:00 – USD Interest Rates Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Thur 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 23:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2151 before a break higher into 1.2176. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2243. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2346 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2151, we will look for a move down to 1.2129. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2035 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2000.
USD/JPY – 149.63 (-29 or -0.19%)
USDJPY is pushing up against a major resistance level, could a new multi year high be formed?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 05:00 – USD Interest Rates Decision
Thur 05:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Thur 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 23:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 149.15. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 150.133, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 151.00 and potentially 152.00.
If we cannot close above 149.15, we could see a move back to test 148.92 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 148.06, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 147.59.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2002 (+30 or +1.52%)
Gold has seen a multi week bull run, will this continue ahead of the USD rate decision news?
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 2000. Should this occur we could see a move into 2032; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 2050. If momentum is strong, then 2079 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 2000, we can see a move down to 1988 A break below this level could see a move lower into 1944 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1926.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 34268 (+3852 or +12.66%)
Bitcoin has seen a double week of over 10% gains, will the trend continue or fizzle out?
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 34000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 35000 before retesting 36000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 37000.
Failure to close above 34000 could see a move into 32000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 30000. A close below this level and 29000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
