This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7799 (+135 or +1.76%)
The AU200 chart is trending upwards with a significant move, showing strength in its recent surge from 7664 to 7799.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Bank Consumer Confidence
Tue 12:30 – AUD Bank Consumer Confidence
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7999. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8099, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8199 and potentially 8299.
If we cannot close above 7619, we could see a move back to test 7519 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7419, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7319.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18251(+202 or +1.12%)
The DAX chart is trending upwards with a significant move, showing strength in its recent surge from 18049 to 18251.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 23:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thur 23:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18702. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 19263, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19824 and potentially 21046.
If we cannot close above 17794, we could see a move back to test 17333 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 16772, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15450.
US
S&P 500 – 5210 (+81 or +1.58%)
The US500 chart is trending upwards with a notable move, showing strength in its recent climb from 5129 to 5210.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:30 – USD CPI
Wed 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate
Wed 23:30 – USD Jobless Claim
Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 23:30 – USD PPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5323. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5425, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5528 and potentially 5733.
If we cannot close above 5097, we could see a move back to test 4995 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4892, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4667.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6563 (+3 or +0.05%)
The AUDUSD chart is trending slightly upwards, indicating a modest increase from 0.6560 to 0.6563 over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Bank Consumer Confidence
Tue 12:30 – AUD Bank Consumer Confidence
Wed 23:30 – USD CPI
Wed 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate
Wed 23:30 – USD Jobless Claim
Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 23:30 – USD PPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6507. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6529, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6552 and potentially 0.6612.
If we cannot close above 0.6474, we could see a move back to test 0.6442 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6408, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6353.
EUR/USD – 1.0825 (-60 or -0.55%)
The EURUSD chart is trending downwards with a notable decline from 1.0885 to 1.0825 over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 23:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thur 23:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Wed 23:30 – USD CPI
Wed 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate
Wed 23:30 – USD Jobless Claim
Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 23:30 – USD PPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0849. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0873, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0899 and potentially 1.0956.
If we cannot close above 1.0801, we could see a move back to test 1.0777 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0751, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0694.
GBP/USD – 1.2617 (-115 or -0.9%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending downwards with a significant decline from 1.2732 to 1.2617 over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:30 – USD CPI
Wed 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate
Wed 23:30 – USD Jobless Claim
Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 23:30 – USD PPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2649. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2682, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2714 and potentially 1.2771.
If we cannot close above 1.2595, we could see a move back to test 1.2562 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2530, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2485.
USD/JPY – 151.70 (+269 or +1.81%)
The USDJPY chart is trending upwards with a significant move from 149.01 to 151.70 over the week, indicating strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence
Wed 23:30 – USD CPI
Wed 23:30 – USD Inflation Rate
Wed 23:30 – USD Jobless Claim
Thu 05:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 23:30 – USD PPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 152.065. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 152.850, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 153.635 and potentially 155.225.
If we cannot close above 151.390, we could see a move back to test 150.605 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 149.820, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 148.230.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2306 (+151 or +7.01%)
The price of gold is trending strongly upwards, with a significant surge from 2155 to 2306 over the week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2358. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2414, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2471 and potentially 2597.
If we cannot close above 2254, we could see a move back to test 2198 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2141, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2015.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 69291 (+1000 or +1.46%)
Bitcoin is trending upwards with a notable increase from 68291 to 69291 over the week, demonstrating strength in its ascent.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 69407. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 69725, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 70044 and potentially 70788.
If we cannot close above 69175, we could see a move back to test 68857 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 68538, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 67894.
