Market Brief


Is the recent military escalation in the Middle East now a material driver for cross‑asset risk repricing and elevated volatility expectations?

Could this heightened geopolitical tension see continued rotation out of equities and cryptos into safe‑haven assets like gold and the yen?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX –  9178 (+131 or +1.45%)

The price of the ASX last week was 9047 and this week it is 9178, trending higher with clear bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 9201. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 9224, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 9247 and potentially 9293.

If we cannot close above 9155, we could see a move back to test 9132 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 9109, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 9063.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –25171 (+42 or +0.17%)

The price of the DAX last week was 25129 and this week it is 25171, trending modestly higher with limited bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Tue 21:00 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 21:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25234. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25297, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25360 and potentially 25486.

If we cannot close above 25108, we could see a move back to test 25045 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24982, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24856.

US

S&P 500 –  6862 (-10 or -0.15%)

The price of the SPX last week was 6872 and this week it is 6862, trending slightly lower with mild bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6879. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6896, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6913 and potentially 6948.

If we cannot close above 6845, we could see a move back to test 6828 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6811, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6776.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.7052 (-39 or -0.55%)

The price of AUDUSD last week was 7091 and this week it is 7052, trending lower with sustained bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Balance of Trade (AUD)

Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUD)

Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7070. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7087, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7105 and potentially 0.7140.

If we cannot close above 0.7034, we could see a move back to test 0.7017 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6999, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6964.

EUR/USD – 1.1765 (-64 or -0.54%)

The price of EURUSD last week was 11829 and this week it is 11765, trending lower with consistent bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 19:00 – Unemployment Rate (EUR)

Tue 21:00 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (EUR)

Fri 21:00 – Employment Change QoQ (EUR)

Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1794. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1824, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1853 and potentially 1.1912.

If we cannot close above 1.1736, we could see a move back to test 1.1706 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1677, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1618.

GBP/USD – 1.3413 (-114 or -0.84%)

The price of GBPUSD last week was 13527 and this week it is 13413, trending sharply lower with strong bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 21:30 – Spring Economic Statement (GBP)

Thu 20:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)

Tue 11:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3447. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3480, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3514 and potentially 1.3581.

If we cannot close above 1.3379, we could see a move back to test 1.3346 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3312, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3245.


USD/JPY – 156.17 (+207 or +1.34%)

The price of USDJPY last week was 15410 and this week it is 15617, trending strongly higher with clear bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 16:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Tue 10:30 – Unemployment Rate (JPY)

Tue 15:00 – BoJ Gov Ueda Speech (JPY)

Fri 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Unemployment Rate (USD)

Wed 23:30 – CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 156.56. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 156.95, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 157.34 and potentially 158.12.

If we cannot close above 155.78, we could see a move back to test 155.39 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.00, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.22.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 5278 (+141 or +2.74%)

The price of Gold last week was 5137 and this week it is 5278, trending strongly higher with powerful bullish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5291. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5304, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5318 and potentially 5344.

If we cannot close above 5265, we could see a move back to test 5252 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5238, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5212.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 65234 (-1808 or -2.7%)

The price of BTC last week was 67042 and this week it is 65234, trending lower with strong bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65397. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65560, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65723 and potentially 66049.

If we cannot close above 65071, we could see a move back to test 64908 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64745, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64419.

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