Market Brief


Can Gold recover above $4,000 as global uncertainty increases?

Will Bitcoin maintain support near $80,000 or face renewed selling pressure?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8808 (-64 or -0.73%)

The ASX declined this week by -0.73%, showing continued selling pressure and bearish momentum

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8766. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8788, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8810 and potentially 8853.

If we cannot close above 8722, we could see a move back to test 8700 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8678, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8635.

EUROPE

DAX (30) –  25200 (-342 or -1.34%)

The DAX fell sharply this week by -1.34%, reflecting increased selling pressure and strong bearish momentum.

Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Fri 00:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25263. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25326, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25389 and potentially 25515.

If we cannot close above 25137, we could see a move back to test 25074 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25011, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24885.

US

S&P 500 –  7653  (-44 or -0.57%)

The SPX declined this week by -0.57%, indicating mild selling pressure and cautious market sentiment.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7672. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7691, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7710 and potentially 7749.

If we cannot close above 7634, we could see a move back to test 7615 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7596, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7557.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.7037 (+71 or +1.02%)

The AUDUSD gained +1.02% this week, showing strong buying momentum and a positive shift in market sentiment.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (AUD)

Wed 11:30 – RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (AUD)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7055. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7072, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7090 and potentially 0.7125.

If we cannot close above 0.7019, we could see a move back to test 0.7002 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6984, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6949.

EUR/USD – 1.1208 (-17 or -0.15%)

The EURUSD edged lower this week by -0.15%, reflecting mild bearish momentum and limited selling pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 00:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR)

Fri 00:45 – ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Fri 19:00 – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (EUR)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1236. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1264, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1292 and potentially 1.1348.

If we cannot close above 1.1180, we could see a move back to test 1.1152 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1124, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1068.

GBP/USD –  1.3372 (+44 or +0.33%)

The GBPUSD moved higher this week by +0.33%, showing modest bullish momentum and steady buying interest.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 23:30 – Autumn Budget 2026 (GBP)

Thu 20:30 – Mortgage Approvals (GBP)

Fri 20:30 – DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3405. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3439, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3472 and potentially 1.3539.

If we cannot close above 1.3339, we could see a move back to test 1.3305 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3272, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3205.


USD/JPY –  156.88 (-95 or -0.6%)

The USDJPY declined this week by -0.60%, indicating renewed selling pressure and a shift towards bearish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 16:00 – Consumer Confidence (JPY)

Fri 14:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)

Fri 14:00 – BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report (JPY)

Thu 05:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)

Thu 05:30 – Fed Press Conference (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Core PCE Price Index MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.27. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.66, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.06 and potentially 158.84.

If we cannot close above 156.49, we could see a move back to test 156.10 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 155.70, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 154.92.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –  4001  (-174 or -4.17%)

Gold dropped sharply this week by -4.17%, reflecting significant selling pressure and strong bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4011. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4021, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4031 and potentially 4051.

If we cannot close above 3991, we could see a move back to test 3981 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3971, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3951.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 80381 (-1613 or -1.97%)

Bitcoin declined this week by -1.97%, showing increased selling pressure and continued bearish momentum across the cryptocurrency market.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 80583. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 80784, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 80985 and potentially 81387.

If we cannot close above 80181, we could see a move back to test 79980 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 79779, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 79377.

DISCLAIMER

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