Market Brief


Can Gold extend its recovery above $4,200 despite elevated US bond yields?

Will upcoming US inflation data fuel another rally or trigger renewed selling pressure?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8778 (+74 or +0.85%)

The ASX surged higher this week with a solid +0.85% gain, showing continued strength and bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8800. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8822, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8844 and potentially 8888.

If we cannot close above 8756, we could see a move back to test 8734 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8712, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8668.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 25247 (-41 or -0.16%)

The DAX edged lower this week with a slight -0.16% decline, reflecting mild bearish pressure and cautious market sentiment.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 13:10 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Wed 19:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Fri 20:00 – CPI (EUR)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 25310. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 25373, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 25436 and potentially 25563.

If we cannot close above 25184, we could see a move back to test 25121 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 25058, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 24931.

US

S&P 500 –   7831 (+96 or +1.24%)

The SPX climbed strongly this week with a +1.24% gain, showing solid bullish momentum and continued buying interest.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7851. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7870, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7890 and potentially 7929.

If we cannot close above 7811, we could see a move back to test 7792 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7772, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7733.

FOREX

AUD/USD –   0.6992 (+38 or +0.55%)

The AUDUSD moved higher this week with a +0.55% gain, indicating positive momentum and renewed buying strength.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (AUD)

Wed 23:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.7009. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.7027, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.7044 and potentially 0.7079.

If we cannot close above 0.6975, we could see a move back to test 0.6957 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6940, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6905.

EUR/USD – 1.1216 (-26 or -0.23%)

The EURUSD slipped lower this week with a -0.23% decline, showing mild bearish momentum and continued selling pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 13:10 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Wed 19:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR)

Fri 20:00 – CPI (EUR)

Wed 23:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1244. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1272, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1300 and potentially 1.1356.

If we cannot close above 1.1188, we could see a move back to test 1.1160 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1132, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1076.

GBP/USD –  1.3251 (+14 or +0.11%)

The GBPUSD edged higher this week with a modest +0.11% gain, reflecting mild bullish momentum and cautious buying interest.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (GBP)

Thu 17:00 – GDP MoM (GBP)

Thu 17:00 – Goods Trade Balance (GBP)

Wed 23:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3284. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3317, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3350 and potentially 1.3417.

If we cannot close above 1.3218, we could see a move back to test 1.3185 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3152, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3085.


USD/JPY –  158.10 (+35 or +0.22%)

The USDJPY moved higher this week with a +0.22% gain, showing modest bullish momentum and steady buying support.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Thu 10:50 – Machinery Orders YoY (JPY)

Thu 10:50 – Machinery Orders MoM (JPY)

Thu 12:30 – BoJ Koeda Speech (JPY)

Wed 23:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (USD)

Thu 23:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (USD)

Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales MoM (USD)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.50. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.89, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.29 and potentially 160.08.

If we cannot close above 157.70, we could see a move back to test 157.31 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.91, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 156.12.

COMMODITIES

GOLD –  4207  (+53 or +1.28%)

Gold surged higher this week with a strong +1.28% gain, reflecting solid bullish momentum and increased buying interest.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4218. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4228, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4239 and potentially 4260.

If we cannot close above 4196, we could see a move back to test 4186 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4175, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4154.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 83775 (-2787 or -3.22%)

Bitcoin dropped sharply this week with a -3.22% decline, showing strong bearish momentum and increased selling pressure.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 83984. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 84194, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 84403 and potentially 84822.

If we cannot close above 83566, we could see a move back to test 83356 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 83147, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 82728.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.