Market Brief


With the U.S. dollar softening and rate-cut speculation building, could gold be positioning for a stronger upside move?

As investors rotate back into safe-haven assets, will rising demand drive gold toward fresh weekly and monthly highs?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 8608 (+12 or +0.14%)

The ASX edged higher this week with a modest +0.14% gain, maintaining a mildly bullish tone compared to last week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change

Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8630. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8651, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8673 and potentially 8716.

If we cannot close above 8586, we could see a move back to test 8565 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8543, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8500.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 24028 (+188 or +0.79%)

The DAX pushed higher this week with a solid +0.79% rise, reinforcing continued bullish momentum in European equities.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (High)

Wed 21:00 – EUR Consumer Confidence (Medium)

Wed 21:55 – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech (Medium)

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24088. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24148, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24208 and potentially 24328.

If we cannot close above 23968, we could see a move back to test 23908 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 23848, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23728.

US

S&P 500 – 6863 (+22 or +0.32%)

The SPX moved higher this week with a steady +0.32% gain, maintaining short-term upside momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6880. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6897, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6914 and potentially 6949.

If we cannot close above 6846, we could see a move back to test 6829 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6812, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6777.

FOREX

AUD/USD –  0.6636 (+93 or +1.42%)
AUDUSD surged strongly higher this week with a powerful +1.42% advance, confirming strong bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wed 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change
Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6653. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6669, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6686 and potentially 0.6719.

If we cannot close above 0.6619, we could see a move back to test 0.6603 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6586, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6553.

EUR/USD – 1.1641 (+46 or +0.4%)

EURUSD climbed modestly this week with a +0.40% rise, maintaining a controlled bullish bias.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 18:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (High)

Wed 21:00 – EUR Consumer Confidence (Medium)

Wed 21:55 – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech (Medium)

Wed 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1670. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1699, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1728 and potentially 1.1787.

If we cannot close above 1.1612, we could see a move back to test 1.1583 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1554, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1495.

GBP/USD – 1.13324 (+95 or +0.72%)

GBPUSD advanced solidly this week with a +0.72% gain, confirming continued bullish momentum.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 11:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

Fri 18:00 – GBP GDP MoM

Fri 18:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance

Wed 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3357. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3391, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3424 and potentially 1.3491.

If we cannot close above 1.3291, we could see a move back to test 1.3257 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3224, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3157.


USD/JPY – 155.17 (-91 or -0.58%)

USDJPY pulled back this week with a -0.58% decline, signalling short-term bearish pressure.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 00:15 – USD ADP Employment Change

Thu 06:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fri 00:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.56. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 155.95, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 156.33 and potentially 157.11.

If we cannot close above 154.78, we could see a move back to test 154.39 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.01, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 153.23.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 4206 (-13 or -0.31%)

Gold softened this week with a mild -0.31% pullback, remaining under short-term downside pressure.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4217. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4227, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4238 and potentially 4259.

If we cannot close above 4195, we could see a move back to test 4185 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4174, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4153.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN –  89994 (-1093 or -1.2%)

Bitcoin declined sharply this week with a -1.20% drop, signalling increasing bearish momentum.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 90219. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 90444, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 90669 and potentially 91119.

If we cannot close above 89769, we could see a move back to test 89544 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 89319, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 88869.

DISCLAIMER

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