This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7336 (-94 or -1.27%)
The ASX spent the week in a tight range, will this week show a breakout direction?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – AUD RBA Metting Minutes
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7320. Should this occur, a move above 7389 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7425 and 7497.
Failure to close above 7320 means a potential move into 7269. 7256 is the next support level down if 7221 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7196.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15877 (-606 or -3.68%)
After a 2% climb last week and closing above the all-time highs the Dax has retreated to the lows of its uptrend channel.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change
Fri 19:00 – EUR CPI
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 15900. Should this occur, then 16029 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 16300 and 16691 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15900, we will look for a move into support at 15791. A strong break and close below this handle and 15600 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15000 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4475 (-113 or -2.46%)
The SPX has closed lower this week, is this a sign of the bulls running out of momentum?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4480. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4518. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4614 and 4700.
If we cannot hold above 4480, we could see this market move down into 44412 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4339. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4245.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.64797 (-186 or -2.79%)
Losing over 2.7% last week, the AUDUSD daily bars are looking very heavy. Will the Bulls find the support they need?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6485. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6507. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6594. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6639 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6485 we could see a move down to 0.6457. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6426, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6377.
EUR/USD – 1.0937 (-84 or -0.76%)
Currently in an upwards trend, the EURUSD is heading towards its low points, will the support hold and continue the uptrend move?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR Employment Change
Fri 19:00 – EUR CPI
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0942. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.100. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1062 and 1.1158.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.100, we will see a move into 1.0942. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0866, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0773.
GBP/USD – 1.2682 (-172 or -1.34%)
GBPUSD is falling slowly against the US Dollar strength that has been seen in the past week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2724 before a break higher into 1.2881. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.3029. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.3136 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2724, we will look for a move down to 1.2659. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2579 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2530.
USD/JPY – 144.90 (+414 or +2.94%)
The USDJPY up trend has gained momentum heading into the 145 level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 09:50 – JPY GDP
Tues 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.79. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.56, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 146.09 and potentially 147.00.
If we cannot close above 144.79, we could see a move back to test 143.95 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 142.98, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 140.66.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1912 (-45 or -2.3%)
GOLD is following the US Dollar strength and moving lower.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1912. Should this occur we could see a move into 1926; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1944. If momentum is strong, then 1981 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1912, we can see a move down to 1882. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1866 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1856.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 29386 (-100 or -0.34%)
Bitcoin is trading in a range and our levels stay unchanged.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 31000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 32000 before retesting 33000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 34500.
Failure to close above 30000 could see a move into 29000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 28000. A close below this level and 25000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
