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Market Brief

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 5541  ( + 109 or + 2.01% )

Another strong 2% + rally by the ASX moving back into the 5500 area. The one thing about the ASX is that extended moves don’t last long so be cautious if you decide to chase this move. NOTE: Bearish Divergence forming.

For the up move to continue we would like to see an early solid long up bar break and close past 5552 which could then lead it towards 5595. If the upward momentum remains strong then we could see the ASX breaking through and reaching 5636 with a possible attempt at breaking the Aug 2014 highs unless 5636 provides some resistance.

If the down move is to restart the moves could come quick. We would first like to see 5524 and 5505 broken with strong momentum followed by solid long down bar breaks past the area between 5463 – 48 followed by a strong push past 5392 before reaching 5367.

EUROPE

DAX – 9331 ( + 313  or + 3.47% )

When the DAX moves, it moves quickly. It is now more important than ever that the DAX holds onto these gains, otherwise the moves down could get aggressive very quickly. NOTE: Potential Bearish Divergence forming.

For the up move to continue this week we would like to see a strong push up past 9403 followed by strong long up bars through 9470 reaching 9581. This level will then need to be broken with strong momentum before the DAX finds potential resistance at either 9673 or 9745.

If the DAX has stretched itself too thin then a move lower could start early with a break past 9286 leading down to 9202. 9164 will then become important as we would like to see a strong break and close past this level before reaching 9123 and possibly 8961.

US

S&P – 2014 (  + 48 or  + 2.44% )

If anyone is brave enough to get in front of this market, then please be my guest.

For the up move to continue we would like to see 2010 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt is made at breaking through 2023. Once this level is broken with strong momentum we could see the Index near 2057.

For the down move to restart we would like to see a strong break and close below 2010. Once this occurs then another break below 2000 could see it near 1981 very quickly. If the S&P breaks through 1981 like a hot knife through butter then 1968, 1953, 1943 could fall quickly with an ambitious 1927 downside target.

FOREX

AUD.USD – 8795  ( – 4  or – 0.05% )

After an early attempt higher the AUD moved sideways and closed only 4 point lower than last week. Therefore our comments remain the same.

For the up move to restart we would like to see 8774 (key level) hold as a strong level of support before a push higher past 8823 is made which could potentially reach 8971.

The AUD has now broken down and the next key level is 8660 (key level – lows from Jan 2014). If this level is broken early this week we could see 8563 and 8461 very quickly. Once these levels are broken 8378 could be seen.

EUR.USD – 12524 ( – 146 or – 1.15% )

6 months ago, traders could not get enough of the EUR, now, well with all the talk about the ECB might throw more money at the markets its hard to hold onto. The BOJ decision might start the ball rolling.

If the EUR is to have any chance for an upmove then we would like to see an early break and close past 12608 reaching 12764. This will then be an important level moving forward.

For the down move to take full effect and continue we would like to see an early break past 12491 followed by further breaks past 12369 and 12258 which could lead the pair down near 12048.

GBP.USD – 15996 ( – 91 or – 0.57% )

Another move higher early in the week followed by a solid down day on Wednesday set the tone.

For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid start to the week breaking past 16109 and 16148. This could then lead the pair to reach 16299.

Another leg lower could be seen if an early break past 15988 occurs. This could then lead it to reach 15888 and 15723 respectively.

USD.JPY – 11234 ( + 420 or + 3.88% )

The BOJ really did a number on this one.

The level we will be watching for further upside break is 10376. Once this level is broken we will discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

If we see a down move or a FADE then we could see this pair near 10985 again.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1173 ( – 57 or – 4.63% )

Now its the BOJ’s turn to throw more money at the markets. Who’s next ECB? For now GOLD has been out of favour. One thing to note is that if the central banks are throwing all this money at the markets then there must be serious underlying issues that they are either ‘forgetting’ or neglecting’ to tell us (the rest of the world). This is concerning.

For the upward move to restart we would like to see an early break and close back up past 1180. This could then lead GOLD to break back above 1200 reaching 1208.

If the equity market continue to rally and GOLD continues lower then a strong break back down past 1167 could lead it towards 1149. If the downward momentum is strong then 1103 and possibly 1091 could be seen.

 

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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.