PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT WE WILL NOT POST A MARKET BRIEF ON MONDAY 21ST APRIL 2014.
This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. Currently Trade View is Net Short.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5407
The ASX rallied strong early in the week to reach a high of 5510 before falling back down the very next day. It closed only 25 points higher than the previous week, therefore our comments remain the same with a slight amendment to the downside numbers.
For the up move to restart we would like to see a strong close above 5423. Once this level is broken with strong long up bars we could see a new attempt at 5510. If this level is reached and broken we will discuss further in our members area.
If the down move restarts then we would like to see an early break past the 5387 – 66 area. If this area is broken with strong downward momentum then we would could see 5270 followed by 5200. Once this is achieved we would like to see a solid break through this level continuing towards 5144. The test for the ASX will then come between 5125 and 5094. If this area does not provide support then we could see further downside moves.
EUROPE
FTSE – 6535
The FICM slowdown mentioned last week took full effect as the FTSE had a ranging week until Friday when it gave way to the downside. Another thing to note is that it reached a low of 6525, 1 point above our level mentioned in last weeks market brief.
For the FTSE to have any chance of a new upmove then we would like to see 6524 become a solid level of support. Once this occurs then we would like to see a solid break back above 6598 – 6616 area. Once this occurs a further push higher could occur if the area between 6637 – 57 are also broken with strong momentum, preferably with a long up bar. If we continue to see strong upward momentum then we could see 6687 reached before another attempt at 6740 is made.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early break past our FICM level of 6524 with a long solid down bar. Once this occurs we could see 6488. If the downward momentum continues then once again we will be paying close attention to the area between 6433 – 6395 as the FTSE could find temporary support.
DAX – 9271
As mentioned last week, the range was met, we have FICM indicating a slowdown and all we needed was for the rest of the world markets to take a dive and we may have a perfect storm. The DAX moved early and fast on its way down to a low of 9256 which was only 23 points higher than our target of 9233.
If we see a bounce back up then a solid start needs to occur with a break above 9321. This could lead the DAX towards 9431 and eventually 9509.
For another down leg to start then we would like to see a solid long down bar break through the area between 9222 – 9201. Once this occurs then 9114 is next on the list. If the moment is strong then as the week is short it might find support near 9000 – 8960.
US
S&P – 1817
Basically the S&P took another dive down to a low of 1814 which was only one point from our 1812 mention in last weeks market brief. Were you paying attention?
For the S&P to move higher we would first like to see 1812 become a solid level of support before breaking back above 1845. If the bounce back is strong then the 1856 – 67 area needs to be broken before we could see a new test of 1897.
For the down move to continue then we would like to see an early break past both 1812 and 1805 leading the Index back below 1800 reaching 1794. If the momentum is strong and traders are worried about leaving positions open over the long holiday week then 1777 could be just a number in the breeze on its way down towards the 1762 – 60 area.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 9392
The AUD is now moving higher testing the resolve of the RBA. Lets see how long it lasts and who says ‘UNCLE’ first.
If this current upmove continues then we would like to see a strong break past 9491 early with a long up bar reaching 9585. Once this level is broken then 9647 could be seen. If the momentum is strong then an ambitious level of 9757 could be reached.
If the AUD starts a downward move from here then we would like to see 9333 broken early before reaching 9226 which could even extend to 9181. If this area is also broken with strong downward momentum then we could see 9020 reached.
EUR.USD – 13884
The EUR is now moving higher testing the resolve of the ECB. Lets see how long it lasts and who says ‘UNCLE’ first.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a solid break and close above the highs in March of 13966, if this occurs we will discuss in our members area.
For the EUR to restart another move down then we would like to see 13820 broken early reaching 13786. Once this is broken we could see 13722. If 13722 is broken with a long down bar then we could reach 13685 and possibly 13589.
GBP.USD – 16730
After a strong rally early in the week reaching a high of 16820 we saw the GBP close 100 points off its highs at 16730 which was only 17 points from our level of 13747 mentioned in last weeks brief.
If the GBP restarts a move higher then we would like to see a solid break past the high set in FEB 2014 of 16822 once this is reached we could see 16914. if this occurs we will discuss in our members area.
If the weak close last week is the start of a further down move then an early break below 16686 could see 16537 reached. If this is broken then it could lead the GBP down towards 16443. If the downward momentum continues strong then 16375 could be seen and possibly 16298.
USD.JPY – 10161
Sounding like a broken record but, the USD fell away last week replicating the S&P move.
If the USD finds strength then we would like to see a strong break above 10192 before reaching 10225. We would then like to see a long up bar (similar to the one 08 April 2014, but in the opposite direction) breakthrough 10309 before pushing higher.
If the Equity markets continue lower and this pair continues to replicate the S&P then we would like to see a strong move past 101.16 before reaching 100.78. For this level to be broken level we would like to see a long solid down bar break through. This could then lead the pair down below 100 again reaching 9977.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1317
Another GOLD move higher while Index markets move lower. Maybe the markets are normal after all?
If GOLD is to move higher than it needs to occur early in the week with a strong break above 1334 followed by another break past 1354. If the upward momentum stays strong and the equity markets collapse then we could see 1389 – 94 area reached quickly.
If the down move restarts then we would like to see 1311 broken reaching 1302, Once this level is also breached then GOLD could find temporary support near 1282.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 103.37
OIL gained some composure last week moving higher by over 300 points before settling 100 points off its highs.
If the upmove continues then we would like to see a strong solid break past 105.02 early in the week followed by another break past 105.58. If the momentum continues then 106.62 could be seen. Once this level is broken with a long solid up bar then we could see some resistance near 107.21
If we are to see another attempt at a down move then an early break past 103.01 could see 102.12 reached. Once this level is also broken then further breaks past 101.25 and 100.06 could push OIL back down past 100 reaching the area between 99.33 – 36.
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